Brazil Coffee Exports Drop 15.7% as US Tariffs Reshape Trade
A 15.7% plunge in Brazilian coffee exports to 38.46 million bags has pushed global prices to a record $379.48 per bag, signaling prolonged supply tightness for investors as US trade barriers permanently alter global flows.
Brazil shipped 38.46 million 60-kg bags in the 2025/26 crop year, down 15.7% from the previous cycle, exporter association Cecafé confirmed. The decline reflects depleted inventories following a record 2024 harvest, weather damage to the 2025 crop, and persistent logistics bottlenecks at Brazilian ports. Producers, flush with capital from recent strong prices, adopted a cautious sales strategy during the off-season, further throttling the pace of shipments.
A 50% US tariff imposed in August 2025 dramatically accelerated the export decline, cutting Brazilian shipments to the US by 54.9% between August and November compared to the prior year. The abrupt trade barrier forced a rapid reallocation of global coffee supply chains, causing the US to lose its position as Brazil’s top coffee market. Cecafé previously assessed that if the duties had remained fully in place, Brazilian shipments to the US were projected to diminish even further.
Despite the volume collapse, the supply crunch pushed the average export price to a record $379.48 per bag, a 17.4% increase year-over-year. For investors, this dynamic suggests well-capitalized Brazilian producers and processors can still drive strong per-unit revenues even as total export volumes contract. The combination of restricted physical supply and disrupted trade routes kept global coffee markets tense throughout the season.
While Washington removed most of the levies in late 2025 and exempted coffee from a broader 25% tariff scheduled for July 22, 2026, trade flows have not normalized. Instant coffee remains subject to the 50% duty, and an ongoing USTR investigation continues to breed policy uncertainty. Buyers have been reluctant to return to pre-tariff purchasing patterns, leaving the market in a state of prolonged recalibration.
The tariff shock has already triggered structural shifts in how the commodity is sourced. In January 2026 alone, exports fell 31% year-over-year as international buyers anticipated a record 2026 harvest. Domestically, stronger consumption of robusta and conilon beans has emerged to offset tight arabica supply, pointing to lasting changes in global bean availability and roaster sourcing strategies.
