Adani and Groww lead expected inclusions in MSCI India August review
The upcoming MSCI India Standard Index rebalancing is projected to drive $2.3 billion in passive inflows, with Adani Green and Groww positioned to capture the largest share of new capital.
The MSCI India Standard Index will announce its August 2026 rebalancing after market hours on August 12, with changes taking effect on August 31. Brokerage estimates indicate the review will add up to 12 stocks and remove three, generating approximately $2.3 billion in passive inflows.
This index reshuffle will significantly alter capital flows for both institutional portfolios and retail investors tracking the benchmark. According to JM Financial, Adani Green Energy, Adani Energy Solutions, and Billionbrains Garage Ventures, the parent of Groww, have a high probability of inclusion.
Groww is projected to attract the largest single tranche of new money, estimated at $821 million. Adani Green Energy follows closely with an expected $773 million inflow, while Adani Energy Solutions could see $342 million. Ather Energy remains a medium-probability candidate, contingent on sustained improvements in its free-float adjusted market capitalization.
Lenskart Solutions and Steel Authority of India carry a lower probability of joining the benchmark, though they could still draw $176 million and $170 million respectively if selected. For market participants, these index adjustments force passive funds to mechanically buy the additions and sell the exclusions by the end-of-month effective date.
This creates predictable liquidity events that often drive short-term price volatility and alter the shareholder base of the affected companies. On the exit side, Astral faces a high risk of removal, which would trigger an estimated $138 million in passive outflows.
SBI Cards and Payment Services is viewed as a medium-probability exclusion candidate, facing potential outflows of $146 million. Balkrishna Industries has a lower probability of being dropped, but its removal would still result in roughly $167 million in fund withdrawals.
The review will also dictate migrations from the Small Cap Index to the Standard Index. JM Financial identifies Laurus Labs and Biocon as high-probability candidates for this upgrade, with estimated inflows of $554 million and $285 million respectively.
Coforge is a medium-probability candidate for the upgrade, potentially bringing in $567 million. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals and Uno Minda are considered low-probability candidates for the migration, with estimated inflows of $330 million and $206 million if they meet the required free-float thresholds.
