India stocks set to open lower as US-Iran conflict boosts energy prices
Escalating Middle East tensions are expected to drag Indian equities lower at the open, pushing traders to hedge via options while targeting specific breakout stocks.
Indian benchmark indices are poised for a gap-down opening on Tuesday as rising energy prices from the escalating US-Iran war weigh on global risk sentiment. Gift Nifty was trading around 24,092, reflecting a discount of nearly 151 points from the previous close.
The market had previously shown resilience during a volatile Monday session. The Nifty 50 closed marginally higher at 24,211.00, while the Sensex added 47.01 points to finish at 77,616.40. Bank Nifty outperformed slightly, gaining 85.55 points to close at 58,131.45.
For international investors, the reaction underscores how tightly coupled Indian risk assets remain to global energy shocks. A sustained rise in oil prices threatens to inflate India's import bill and pressure corporate margins, forcing a shift from broad-based buying to defensive, stock-specific positioning.
Derivatives data highlights this cautious stance. According to Chandan Taparia, Head of Derivatives & Technicals at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, option activity points to a capped upside. “Call writing is seen at 24,300 then 24,200 strike, while Put writing is seen at 24,000 then 24,200 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 23,800 to 24,600 zones, while an immediate range between 24,000 to 24,500 levels,” Taparia said.
Taparia noted that the Nifty 50 must hold above 24,200 to test resistance at 24,350 and 24,500, with support resting at 24,050. Similarly, Bank Nifty needs to stay above 58,000 to advance toward 58,750, with downside support at 57,500.
Stock picks target technical breakouts
In the absence of broad index momentum, Taparia identified three individual equities showing favorable technical setups. He recommends buying Coforge, citing a volume-backed breakout from a consolidation zone and a bullish MACD crossover. The target price is ₹1,635, with a stop loss at ₹1,495.
Bajaj Auto is also on the buy list after bouncing from its 200-day exponential moving average. A rising ADX line indicates the uptrend has underlying strength, with a target of ₹11,000 and a stop loss of ₹10,070.
Additionally, Taparia suggests buying Divi’s Laboratories for a target of ₹7,350, pointing to a pending range breakout and positive RSI momentum. The stop loss for the pharmaceutical stock is set at ₹6,740.
