Eli Lilly Raises Guidance as Oral GLP-1 Approval Fuels 55.5% Sales Jump

Eli Lilly reported $19.80 billion in first-quarter 2026 revenue, crushing the $17.80 billion consensus estimate. The 55.5% year-over-year growth prompted management to raise its full-year guidance by $2 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share reached $8.55, significantly surpassing the $6.79 analyst forecast.

The quarterly beat was driven by the FDA clearance of Foundayo, the first any-time-of-day oral GLP-1 treatment. Chief Executive Dave Ricks noted the drug can reach "over 1 billion people around the world with obesity and related conditions." Regulatory reviews for the oral treatment are currently underway in over 40 countries, with early launch data showing 80% of prescriptions were from patients new to the drug class.

Lilly's existing injectable portfolio continued its rapid expansion, widening the competitive gap with peers. Mounjaro revenue jumped 125% to $8.66 billion, while Zepbound sales climbed 80% to $4.16 billion. This growth contrasts sharply with Novo Nordisk, which reported a 4% sales drop and faces a looming 50% price cut for Wegovy, while Merck posted a comparatively modest 5% growth rate.

The company is aggressively building its future pipeline and manufacturing footprint to support this demand. Phase 3 trials for retatrutide, a next-generation triple agonist, demonstrated up to 37 pounds of weight loss. Lilly recently announced a $6.3 billion acquisition of Centessa and committed $6.5 billion to a new manufacturing plant in Houston. Morningstar flagged the drugmaker as positioned for "industry-leading growth."

Despite the robust top-line expansion, pricing dynamics present a clear risk to margins. Realized prices fell 13% during the quarter, entirely offset by a 65% surge in volume. International pricing faces additional pressure following Mounjaro's inclusion on China's National Reimbursed Drug List. The company must also navigate a fresh Novo Nordisk lawsuit alleging deceptive GLP-1 comparison ads, alongside emerging generic semaglutide competition.

Shares of the $1 trillion pharmaceutical giant have risen 8.59% year-to-date and 50.84% over the trailing year. The stock has recovered from its April low of $903.99 to trade at $1,186.85. Analysts maintain a bullish outlook, citing a base price target of $1,365.51 and a bull-case scenario of $1,429.03, as the oral obesity market opens a significant new revenue stream.