45% YTD rally! Experts see up to 56% upside in these 3 stocks on China's export shift | Target, rationale
Chinese abrasive products are losing tax advantages, benefiting Indian competition. Monarch Networth Capital forecasts growth in Grindwell Norton, Carborundum Universal, and Wendt India.
China's abrasive (materials used for grinding, cutting and polishing) products are losing export rebates, and this could benefit Indian-made abrasive more competitive. The sector is witnessing a blend of capex up-cycle with structural premiumisation, according to Monarch Networth Capital which sees up to 56% upside potential (bull case) in stocks like like Grindwell Norton , Carborundum Universal , and Wendt India.
Demand from automotive precision, aerospace, electronics, semiconductor and EV-adjacent applications may also drive growth in the sector. The brokerage sees a nascent upcycle in the sector lifted by premiumisation.
The brokerage remains bullish on three stocks in the sector, ie Grindwell Norton, Carborundum Universal, and Wendt India. “We see a nascent upcycle, preferring a pecking order of GNO, CUMI, and then Wendt on fundamentals and risk-reward.”
The brokerage gave a ‘Buy’ rating to the stock with a target price of ₹ 2,371 per share in base case, ₹ 2,986 per share in Bull case and ₹ 1,778 per share in bear case. The brokerage sees nearly 23.8% upside in base case, 55.9% upside in the stock in bull case, and 7.2% decline in bear case.
“We initiate coverage on GNO with a BUY. GNO combines a strong Saint-Gobain-backed competitive franchise with a broad abrasives portfolio, deep technology access and pricing discipline.”
The stock closed 0.64% lower at ₹ 1977.25 per share on BSE on Thursday. Its share price value has surged nearly 26% year to date (YTD).
The brokerage gave a ‘Buy’ rating to the stock with a target price of ₹ 1563 per share (29.8% upside) in base case, ₹ 1737 (44.3%) in bull case, ₹ 848 (29% downside) per share in base case .
“CUMI’s moat rests on upstream bauxite/alumina/SiC integration and Ceramics, its highest EBITDA margin segment (24.7%), now riding semiconductor and defense qualification ramps,” stated the brokerage in its report.
The stock closed 0.96% lower at ₹ 1239.95 per share on Thursday. Its share price value has surged 44% year to date.
Monarch Networth Capital gave a ‘Hold’ rating to the stock with a target price of ₹ 8793 per share (5% upside) in base case, ₹ 10,593 (26% upside) in bull case, and ₹ 5586 (33.4% downside) in bear case.
The stock ended 2.89% lower at ₹ 8122.75 per share on BSE on Thursday. Its share price value has 32% in six months, and 4% in 2026 so far.
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