Cabo Verde Election 2026 Returns PAICV to Power After Record Abstention

, The stakes. A razor-thin PAICV victory ends a decade of MpD rule and tests Africa’s most stable democracy., The date. Legislative elections were held on 17 May 2026, with the prime minister named on 3 June 2026., The winner. PAICV secured 37 of 72 seats, the exact absolute majority, and nominated Francisco Carvalho as prime minister., The tourism engine. Tourist arrivals reached a record 1.25 million by end-2025, driving consumption and employment., The debt burden. Public debt remains above 100 percent of GDP, constraining fiscal space for the new government.

Cabo Verde’s spring legislative election delivered the narrowest victory in the country’s electoral history, returning the PAICV to power with a single-seat majority. The result hands incoming Prime Minister Francisco Carvalho a mandate while record tourism and heavy public debt define the economic agenda.

The PAICV won 37 deputies in the 72-seat National Assembly, exactly the threshold for an absolute majority.

The party received 90,660 votes, or 48.04 percent of the national total.

This represented a gain of seven seats compared with the previous election and returned the party to government after about a decade in opposition.

The MpD followed with 84,458 votes and 33 seats, a loss of five seats and of its majority.

Turnout reached just 46.46 percent, leaving 53.54 percent of registered voters absent.

That abstention rate is described as a record in Cabo Verde’s electoral history.

The low participation contributed to a sharp setback for UCID, which won only two seats.

A 2022 scandal involving the arrest of one of its deputies also hurt the party.

President José Maria Neves announced the nomination of Francisco Carvalho as prime minister on 3 June 2026.

Carvalho’s nomination follows the PAICV’s absolute majority in the National Assembly.

His victory marks the PAICV’s return to government after ten years in opposition.

The peaceful handover from MpD to PAICV reinforces Cabo Verde’s reputation for democratic alternation.

The World Bank counted 1.17 million tourist arrivals in 2024 and a record 1.25 million by the end of 2025.

The National Statistics Institute separately reported 981,354 foreign visitors in 2024, the highest figure in that series.

That foreign-visitor number was an 11.8 percent increase from 2023.

Tourism supported 3.0 percent growth in private consumption and record tourism-related employment.

The apparent gap between 981,000 and 1.17 million reflects different measurement categories.

The lower figure counts only foreign visitors, while the World Bank uses total tourist arrivals.

Both series show strong growth, but foreign visitors alone do not capture the full tourism economy.

Investors should treat total arrivals as the broader indicator of sector activity.

IMF documents list public debt above 100 percent of GDP for Cabo Verde.

That debt burden constrains fiscal space for infrastructure and social spending.

Tourism revenues and remittances provide foreign exchange but have not eliminated the debt overhang.

The new government will face pressure to balance debt reduction with growth priorities.

Cabo Verde relies heavily on remittances from its large diaspora.

These inflows support household consumption and help offset trade deficits.

Remittances, alongside tourism, underpin the escudo’s peg to the euro.

The currency peg gives investors exchange-rate stability but limits monetary flexibility.

The government has promoted a blue-economy agenda around fisheries, ports, and ocean-based services.

Renewable energy investment aims to reduce dependence on imported diesel and fuel oil.

Wind and solar projects have expanded across several islands in recent years.

These sectors are central to long-term plans for energy security and export diversification.

Cabo Verde has regular multiparty legislative elections and no history of coups.

The 2026 transition from MpD to PAICV was peaceful and followed constitutional rules.