Glassnode data flags early 2026 Bitcoin bear market bottom
A cooling of realized losses among Bitcoin investors who bought near the cycle peak is providing early evidence that the current bear market may be establishing a floor.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has identified a historical reversal pattern in Bitcoin’s realized losses that suggests the current bear market is approaching its floor. Investors who purchased the token between July 2024 and July 2025—when prices rallied from roughly $62,800 to a peak of $107,000—have spent recent months underwater. As frustration mounted over sustained price underperformance, this group progressively increased its selling, driving a measurable spike in realized losses that is now showing signs of exhaustion.
The 30-day moving average of realized losses for these one-to-two-year holders recently surpassed $75 million before beginning to roll over. “One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market’s end is, Realized Loss volume (in USD) by the 1-2 year holders,” wrote Cryptovizart, Glassnode’s pseudonymous lead research analyst, in a Friday post.
The capitulation of these cycle-peak buyers is a traditional prerequisite for macro price bottoms. “Historically, bear markets have not found durable footing until this specific group exhausts its sell pressure,” Cryptovizart noted. “When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market. Worth watching closely.”
$69,000 threshold tests recovery
While the loss reversal indicates long-term selling pressure is fading, the path to recovery faces a defined technical hurdle. Stochastic relative strength index values on two-month timeframes are already creating classic market reversal conditions. However, Glassnode’s latest Week Onchain newsletter highlighted that the aggregate cost basis for short-term holders currently sits at $69,000.
This specific price point aligns with Bitcoin’s previous all-time highs from the 2021 bull run, creating a dense zone of historical selling interest. “The first meeting with that level will likely draw a strong reaction, because the people most inclined to sell are the ones about to be made whole,” the firm’s newsletter stated.
The interaction between Bitcoin’s current price and the $69,000 level will dictate the pace of any sustained recovery. “A convincing reclaim would give the recovery room to run; a rejection keeps the range intact,” Glassnode concluded. For market participants, the combination of exhausted peak buyers and a clear short-term cost basis establishes a measurable risk framework for the asset’s near-term direction.
