Bitcoin slips to $64,000 on Gulf strikes despite bullish July bets
Profit-taking and Iranian attacks on U.S. Gulf bases pushed Bitcoin to $64,000, but rising options volumes and record RWA futures suggest institutional traders are positioned for a late-July rally.
Bitcoin retreated to $64,000 after touching a monthly high of $65,500 on Wednesday. The 1.1% drop over the past 24 hours was driven by traders locking in profits following the brief rally.
The crypto sell-off coincided with escalating geopolitical tensions after Iran launched attacks on U.S. military bases in neighboring Gulf states. Risk-off sentiment spilled over into traditional markets, with Nasdaq 100 futures falling 0.25% to extend a 30-day downtrend.
Derivatives data indicates the current pullback is largely a function of long positions being closed rather than aggressive new short selling. Ether open interest fell to 14.35 million ETH from a five-week high, while Bitcoin futures showed similar unwinding dynamics.
However, active bearish positioning is emerging in select altcoins. XRP open interest rose to a 10-day high of 2.21 billion tokens alongside a negative cumulative volume delta, a signal of market-order short selling. Sui's token also saw a 15% increase in open interest as its price dropped nearly 2%.
Options point to July rebound
Despite near-term bearish price action, options traders are betting on a sharp recovery by month-end. A large bull call spread on Deribit targeted Bitcoin strikes of $70,000 and $72,000, while the most traded Ether bet was a $2,300 call for the end of July.
Investors should brace for volatility to achieve those targets. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index rose 2% to 38%, a sub-40% level that has historically preceded renewed market turbulence.
Exchange volumes signal broader recovery
The derivatives activity sits against a backdrop of recovering market engagement. Centralized exchange spot volumes climbed 15.3% to $1.11 trillion in June, marking the first monthly increase in five months.
Real-world asset perpetual volumes surged to a record $311 billion. While the broader altcoin market suffered—CoinMarketCap's "Altcoin Season" index dropped to 48—specific narratives held up. Artificial intelligence token MORPHO gained 3.5% to test $2.20 resistance, even as the Robinhood Chain memecoin CASHCAT collapsed from a $220 million market cap to $91 million.
