US claims of 15 million bpd Middle East oil rebound defy tracking data
Washington’s assertion that Middle Eastern crude exports have normalized at 15 million barrels per day clashes with independent vessel tracking, raising questions about efforts to cool record-high gasoline prices ahead of midterm elections.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed this week that Middle East oil exports have rebounded to 15 million barrels per day. He stated that Sunday traffic alone exceeded pre-war averages of 20 million bpd, suggesting a rapid normalization of crude flows from the region.
Independent vessel-tracking services and commodity analysts strongly dispute these physical flow estimates. Data compiled from tanker-monitoring firms shows only about 9 million bpd leaving the Middle East via all export channels so far this month, revealing a discrepancy of up to 5 million bpd.
“It is not possible to reconcile the disparity between what we see and what he is quoting,” Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, said regarding the administration's figures. The US Energy Information Administration also noted in its latest outlook that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
Wright defended the government's stance, stating that the Department of Energy and the US military maintain the best available data. He argued that private tracking companies routinely undercount shipments because tankers frequently move covertly through the strategic waterway.
This data dispute arrives as US gasoline prices hit record highs for the season, with the national average resting above $4 per gallon. While AAA notes that fuel demand is down, elevated crude markets continue to keep pump prices unusually high for this time of year.
GasBuddy reported the August 13 national average reached $4.06 per gallon, the most expensive for this calendar day since 2008. Market participants suspect the administration may be attempting to talk down crude prices as midterm elections approach in November.
Washington has faced a renewed deadlock in negotiations with Iran, which has contributed to the ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical uncertainty. The true volume of Middle Eastern exports will become evident over the next five to six weeks as current shipments appear in international import data.
