ASML raises 2026 outlook to €45bn on AI demand
ASML has lifted its 2026 revenue guidance by roughly a quarter, signalling that AI-driven capital expenditure among chipmakers is deepening and likely to lift European semiconductor valuations.
ASML raised its 2026 net revenue forecast to between €43 billion and €45 billion, up sharply from a previous range of €36 billion to €40 billion. The Dutch semiconductor equipment maker posted second-quarter revenue of €9.33 billion, comfortably beating analyst expectations of €8.80 billion. At the midpoint, the revised guidance implies roughly 16% growth.
The upgrade reflects sustained and deepening capital expenditure by leading chipmakers racing to expand manufacturing capacity for artificial intelligence. ASML specifically attributed its robust quarterly performance to accelerating demand for the specialized lithography equipment required to print the complex circuitry of AI chips. This dynamic underscores how quickly the AI infrastructure buildout is translating into tangible orders for premium European industrial hardware.
Beyond the financial metrics, the earnings release marked a critical commercial milestone for ASML's next-generation High-NA EUV lithography technology. Intel confirmed it will deploy these newly developed systems to manufacture certain versions of its upcoming Panther Lake processors. High-NA EUV machines are widely expected to become the standard tooling required for producing future generations of smaller, more powerful semiconductors.
The guidance shift is likely to have a knock-on effect across the European tech sector. Analysts at JPMorgan noted that the updated targets suggest substantially stronger growth than the market had previously anticipated. The bank added that the raised outlook could help narrow the persistent valuation gap between ASML and its major U.S. semiconductor equipment peers.
Geopolitics remains a central theme for the company. Despite stringent U.S.-led export restrictions, China continues to be a highly significant market. Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen reaffirmed expectations that Chinese customers will account for roughly 20% of total sales this year. While this represents a smaller percentage of the overall mix compared to previous years, absolute sales to China are still expected to rise in tandem with the company's expanding total revenue.
ASML remains prohibited from selling its flagship EUV systems and its most advanced deep ultraviolet machines to Chinese buyers. However, it continues to supply less advanced DUV equipment, which Chinese chipmakers utilize for domestic applications spanning AI, smartphones and basic computing. Looking ahead, ASML flagged proposed U.S. legislation that could further tighten these export controls as an ongoing risk to its business model.
