US banks poised for broad EPS beats, lifting 2026-27 estimates
Bank of America expects all eight major US banks to exceed consensus profit estimates, driven by robust capital markets and wealth flows that could trigger upward revisions for late 2026 and 2027 earnings.
Bank of America analysts forecast that all eight major US banks under their coverage will beat both consensus and in-house earnings-per-share estimates in the upcoming reporting season. The firm projects that a resilient broader economy, strong capital markets activity and improving wealth management flows will drive the widespread outperformance.
For market professionals, the significance lies beyond the immediate quarterly headline numbers. Investors typically discount trading and investment banking revenue beats as transient. However, Bank of America argues the current strength reflects more durable underlying trends. If this revenue momentum holds, it is likely to trigger upward revisions to second-half 2026 and fiscal 2027 earnings estimates across the sector.
JPMorgan Chase presents the most asymmetric risk-reward setup heading into the results. Executives have previously cautioned that the bank may be "over-earning" in the near term, a narrative that has kept some investors cautious. Dismissing that caution, Bank of America raised its second-quarter EPS estimate to $5.59 from $5.48, citing expectations for stronger capital markets revenue and potential upside in net interest income.
Citigroup is expected to build on recent momentum under a similar dynamic. The bank's conservative official guidance stands in stark contrast to the current strong operating environment. Bank of America lifted its second-quarter EPS estimate to $2.65 from $2.60, noting that investors will be highly focused on the bank's progress toward its return on tangible common equity targets.
Morgan Stanley enters the earnings period with positive momentum tied directly to its wealth management franchise. Bank of America raised its second-quarter EPS estimate to $2.81 from $2.71, pointing to stronger capital markets revenue. Analysts expect investors to scrutinize net new asset growth, particularly given recent initial public offering activity and ongoing integration benefits from the firm's workplace business.
Wells Fargo's results will hinge on net interest income. Bank of America maintained its second-quarter EPS estimate at $1.72, emphasizing that investor confidence in the bank's ability to execute its NII outlook and broader growth strategy will dictate the stock's subsequent performance. The remaining covered banks—Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street and Northern Trust—are also positioned to beat estimates, supported by net interest income and wealth flows.
