Nigeria exceeds OPEC quota as crude output hits six-year high
Nigeria has breached its OPEC production ceiling for a second consecutive month, signaling a sustained upstream recovery that adds unmanaged supply to a tightly balanced global oil market.
Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged 1.56 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June, exceeding its OPEC-mandated ceiling of 1.5 mbpd. This marks the second consecutive month the country has breached its quota and represents the highest strict crude output recorded since April 2020.
Including condensate, total oil and gas liquids output reached an average of 1.74 mbpd, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). Daily production fluctuated between a low of 1.57 mbpd and a peak of 1.89 mbpd during the month.
The figures cap a four-month upward trajectory that saw crude and condensate production climb steadily from 1.483 mbpd in February to 1.546 mbpd in March, 1.663 mbpd in April, and 1.700 mbpd in May. The 1.735 mbpd average in June represents a 2.2 percent month-on-month increase.
For global oil markets and investors, this recovery carries outsized significance. Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer, but its output has been severely constrained for years by rampant crude theft and pipeline vandalism. Four straight months of uninterrupted growth suggests these structural bottlenecks are finally easing.
The NUPRC credited the June performance directly to improved asset reliability. The regulator noted an absence of major pipeline outages and highlighted that scheduled turnaround maintenance was managed effectively. “This enhanced operational stability supported improved production uptime and crude evacuation efficiency,” the commission stated.
Terminal-level data shows the recovery is broadly based among key export streams. Bonny Terminal, a major benchmark grade, saw output rise to 318,280 barrels per day from 293,880 in May. Forcados Terminal increased to 306,360 bpd from 289,900 bpd over the same period.
Smaller gains were recorded at Escravos, which rose to 138,030 bpd, and Bonga, which climbed to 103,660 bpd. Qua Iboe was the only major terminal to report a decline, slipping to 164,730 bpd from 173,360 bpd in May.
The sustained production revival, however, complicates supply dynamics for OPEC, which relies on strict quota adherence to manage global inventories. With Nigeria now consistently pumping above its allotted share, it introduces unmanaged supply into a market that other members are actively trying to tighten. “The sustained growth recorded in June reflects the continued commitment of operators and industry stakeholders towards improving operational efficiency, maintaining asset integrity, and enhancing production reliability across the Nigerian upstream petroleum sector,” the NUPRC said.
