Colombia Energy Deficit May Hit 7,669 GWh

Colombia energy deficit could reach 7,669 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2026-2027, equal to 8.3% of projected demand, grid operator XM said in a bulletin published on Friday 16 October 2026. Portafolio, the Bogotá business daily, reported the figure on Saturday 17 October as a strong El Niño dries the rivers that feed Colombia’s dams.

US companies, investors and travellers depend on a Colombian grid that came close to rationing on 28 and 29 September. A firm-energy gap is a planning measure, not a forecast of blackouts, and no rationing has been ordered.

We covered the operator’s rationing warning in Colombia Power Rationing Risk Is Rising . This article looks at a different number, the gap in guaranteed supply that XM puts at 8.3% for 2026-2027.

XM, the company that runs Colombia’s national grid and wholesale power market, issued its Boletín Energético 364 on 16 October. Portafolio says it puts the gap between available firm energy and projected demand at up to 7,669 GWh for 2026-2027.

Firm energy is the electricity that generators can commit to deliver even in a dry year. A gigawatt-hour is one million kilowatt-hours, so 7,669 GWh equals about 7.7 billion kilowatt-hours.

The bulletin warns that low river inflows and thermal output stuck at or below 85 GWh a day until April 2027 could leave the system struggling to meet demand safely. XM’s analysis starts from a hydrology similar to that of 2015 to 2017.

In that scenario, Portafolio says, there would not be enough resources to cover demand fully between February and April 2027. El Nuevo Siglo noted on 11 October that XM’s earlier bulletin did not call a blackout inevitable but flagged possible unmet demand or rationing.

The same 7,669 GWh a year, or 8.3% of projected average demand, appeared in XM’s previous bulletin, which El Nuevo Siglo summarised on Sunday 11 October. Portafolio added on Thursday 15 October that Juan Carlos Morales, acting general manager of XM, put the 2026-2027 firm-energy deficit close to 8%.

Portafolio’s account of Bulletin 364 also lists later shortfalls of 8,015 GWh in 2027-2028, 10,300 GWh in 2028-2029 and 10,603 GWh in 2029-2030. For 2025-2026 it gives 4,979 GWh, or 5.6% of projected average demand.

The trend matters more than any single year, because the gap widens as demand grows faster than firm supply. Earlier warnings of a structural shortfall were covered in Colombia Electricity Deficit Looms from 2028, Power Sector in July.

Electricity demand has grown 23.6% since December 2019, and October 2026 ran 4.4% above the same month of 2025, Portafolio says the bulletin shows. The system recorded a daily peak of 266.56 GWh and a power peak of 12,706 megawatts.

On 15 October river inflows stood at 60.46% of the historical average, and the partial reservoir level was 77.86%. At that level, energy and gas regulator CREG’s Resolution 101 127 of 2026 cut the minimum thermal output from 100 to 95 GWh a day.

XM also says thermal plants have lost availability since April, even below their firm-energy obligations. Half of the transmission projects are running late against their original start dates.

Between 1 January and 15 October the national dispatch centre ordered 367 load disconnections for security or reliability reasons, 352 of them in the Caribbean area. Disconnections in that region from 1 April to 15 October totalled 3.22 GWh.

XM’s list of steps includes securing fuel for thermal plants, speeding up new projects and approvals for distributed generation, and letting surplus power flow into the grid. It also proposes immediate demand management with saving campaigns and fewer network restrictions.

Carlos Mario Correa, acting manager of XM’s national dispatch centre, told La FM on Friday 16 October that the system faces a condition of stress that cannot be ignored. He said a shortfall in the 28 and 29 September schedules was covered with extra generation and caused no cuts.

Correa added that moving clocks forward, as Colombia did in the 1990s, would not bring a significant saving in XM’s simulations. More gas, including extra regasification capacity at SPEC LNG, would help fuel thermal plants only if contracts are signed.

For US travellers, no cuts are scheduled, because nothing has been ordered. The regulatory dry season runs from December 2026 to April 2027, so visitors should ask hotels about back-up power.

US companies and investors in Colombia face dearer power and some risk of interrupted production if the gap is not closed. Our reports Colombia Declares El Niño as Power Prices Rise 126% and Colombia Puts an Hour of Power Rationing at US$1.75 Million give the wider cost picture.

For the wider setting, see Who Dominates Colombia, Elites and Regions Explained and Colombia Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026 . Visitors planning a stay in the capital can use our Bogotá expat city guide .

XM’s own bulletin could not be opened for this article, so the 7,669 GWh and 8.3% figures rest on Portafolio’s account and on El Nuevo Siglo’s summary of the earlier bulletin. The two outlets agree on both numbers.

The sources reviewed do not say how the 2026-2027 period is defined or how many days of shortfall the gap implies. They also do not say whether the government will order rationing, or how any cuts would be shared.

The multi-year figures and the 2025-2026 comparison come from Portafolio alone, so they stay reported rather than confirmed. Whether El Niño proves as dry as XM’s 2015 to 2017 scenario will only become clear over the coming months.

XM says the gap between firm energy and projected demand could reach 7,669 GWh in 2026-2027, or 8.3%. Firm energy is the electricity generators can commit to deliver even in a dry year.

Not by itself, because a firm-energy gap is a planning measure. XM’s dry scenario points to possible difficulty meeting demand between February and April 2027 if rain stays low and thermal output stays at 85 GWh a day.

XM is the company that operates Colombia’s national power grid and its wholesale electricity market. Juan Carlos Morales is its acting general manager.

The partial reservoir level was 77.86% on 15 October, based on XM data cited by Portafolio. River inflows were 60.46% of the historical average that day.

No cuts have been ordered, so plans need not change. Visitors in the dry season from December to April should ask hotels about back-up power and follow local announcements.

Sources: Portafolio, 17 October 2026 ; El Nuevo Siglo, 11 October 2026 ; Portafolio, 15 October 2026 ; La FM, 16 October 2026 ; XM, Boletín Energético 364, 16 October 2026 (cited via Portafolio).

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind , Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error