Mexico Record Investment Nears US$35 Billion While Growth Lags at 1.2%

Mexico record investment and weak growth now sit side by side. Foreign direct investment reached US$34.97 billion in the first half of 2026, the highest first half on record.

Yet the economy grew only 1.2% over the same six months, according to INEGI, the national statistics institute. A column in the business magazine Expansión on 2 October asks why the money is not lifting output more.

The Economy Ministry (Secretaría de Economía) published the figures on 24 August. Investment rose 2.1% from the first half of 2025, led by manufacturing, which took US$13.48 billion.

The split matters more than the total. Reinvested profits of companies already in Mexico made up 88.5%, while new investments added only US$2.73 billion, or 7.8%.

Intercompany loans supplied the remaining US$1.29 billion. The second quarter alone brought US$10.46 billion, down 3.5% on a year earlier, which the ministry attributes to an unusually strong 2025 base.

INEGI’s revised data on 24 August showed output up 1.4% in the second quarter from the first. That was the strongest quarter since early 2022, helped by spending around the football World Cup.

It followed a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter. Annual growth in the second quarter was revised down to 1.9%, from an early estimate of 2.1%.

On 8 September the Finance Ministry cut its 2026 forecast to a range of 1% to 2%, from 1.8% to 2.8%, Bloomberg Línea reported. Private and international forecasters cited by El CEO expect between 1.1% and 1.5%.

The Expansión column is written by Martín Pustilnick, co-founder and chief executive of MUNDI, a firm that finances Mexican exporters. He argues that external factors such as US tariffs explain only part of the gap.

In his view, reinvestment shows that companies already present trust Mexico enough to stay. New capital, which builds fresh plants and supply chains, is what spreads investment into the wider economy.

He also cites industrial-space take-up of over 680,000 square metres in April and May, up 6% on a year earlier. His question is how industrial investment can rise while manufacturing output falls.

Pustilnick lists three gaps: reliable energy supply for new plants and logistics linking industrial parks to ports and the border. The third is credit for small suppliers serving large investors.

He points to the 2027 economic package as the place to answer these questions. The strong second quarter, he writes, shows the economy can still recover.

Earlier coverage: Mexico Investment Surges to Record but Debt Warning Looms . For the wider picture, see Mexico Nearshoring Explained: Record FDI, the USMCA Review and What Could Stop It .

Third-quarter growth and investment data are still to come. It is not yet clear whether second-quarter momentum carried into the second half.

It is also unclear whether the 2027 budget, now before Congress, will fund the energy and logistics work investors say they need. The column’s figures on manufacturing and industrial space were not independently confirmed.

Sources: Expansión (column by Martín Pustilnick, 2 Oct 2026); Mexico’s Economy Ministry , foreign direct investment release (24 Aug 2026); Bloomberg Línea (8 Sep 2026); INEGI GDP data as reported by El CEO (24 Aug 2026).

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind , Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error

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