Argentina Tax Revenue Up 38.3% in September but Down in Real Terms in 2026

Argentina’s tax revenue rose 38.3% in September to 21.36 trillion pesos (about US$14.0 billion), the tax agency ARCA said on 1 October. After inflation, that is a gain of roughly 3.7%, the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (IARAF) estimates.

The jump came mostly from a change in tax deadlines and stronger export duties. Over the first nine months of 2026, revenue is still estimated to be lower in real terms than a year earlier.

The total combines the three arms of ARCA: the tax office, customs and the social security collector, the news site Infobae reported. Peso amounts here use the central bank’s wholesale reference rate of 1,523.23 pesos per US dollar on 1 October.

Real figures are estimates for now. IARAF assumed annual inflation of 33.3%, while Infobae used 33.5% and put real growth at 3.6%.

Either way, Infobae called it the largest real increase since May 2024. The official September inflation rate from INDEC, the statistics office, has not yet been published.

Income tax brought in 4.77 trillion pesos (about US$3.1 billion), up 63.3% nominally and an estimated 22.5% in real terms. Much of that is timing.

The first income-tax advance for 2026 fell due in September, ARCA said; a year earlier it was due in August. The filing deadline for individuals was also pushed back to 13 October.

Export duties raised 1.12 trillion pesos (about US$736 million), up 99.2%, or about 49% after inflation. ARCA cited higher prices for soy, grains and hydrocarbons and more fuel and mineral exports.

The comparison base also helps. In 2025, exporters brought sales forward to June and July to use a temporary cut in duties, the newspaper Ámbito noted.

In September 2025 the government had also briefly suspended export duties by decree, Infobae recalled.

Social security contributions reached 4.97 trillion pesos (about US$3.3 billion), an estimated real rise of 1.6%, Clarín reported.

Value-added tax, the biggest single source, raised 6.92 trillion pesos (about US$4.5 billion). That was 26.1% more than a year earlier, but an estimated 5.4% less in real terms.

It is the eleventh month in a row of real decline since November 2025, IARAF’s Nadin Argañaraz said. The drag came from VAT on imports, down an estimated 18.4% in real terms. Domestic VAT rose about 1.7%, IARAF estimates.

The economist Gabriel Caamaño of the consultancy Outlier cautioned that September VAT reflects sales from June to August. It does not yet show September’s spending.

Revenue had risen 1.8% in real terms in May and fallen 7.4% in July, Clarín reported. It was roughly flat in real terms in August .

For January to September, IARAF estimates a real fall of 3.0%, or 1.5% excluding trade taxes. A calculation published by El Intransigente puts the decline at 2.6%.

Spending has carried the adjustment. The Economy Ministry reports a primary surplus, before interest, of about 1.1% of GDP for January to August.

The consultancy Analytica estimated that committed primary spending fell 10% in real terms in August, the sharpest cut this year, Clarín reported.

The official inflation figure will confirm whether September was a real gain of about 3.6% or 3.7%. The delayed income-tax filing also shifts some money into October.

The rise does not mean consumers are back. Most of it came from tax timing and export prices, while total VAT kept falling.

It does give the government a little room. A month of real growth eases pressure on a surplus that has so far depended on spending cuts.

ARCA is Argentina’s Agency for Revenue Collection and Customs Control. It replaced the former tax agency, AFIP, in 2024 and collects national taxes, customs duties and social security contributions.

Prices in Argentina rose by about a third over the past year. After that inflation is removed, the gain in purchasing power is an estimated 3.6% to 3.7%.

VAT is Argentina’s largest single tax and follows spending closely. Total VAT fell in real terms for an eleventh straight month, mainly because VAT on imports dropped; domestic VAT edged up.

Yes. The Economy Ministry reported a primary surplus of about 1.1% of GDP for January to August 2026, kept largely through spending cuts.

Sources: ARCA monthly collection report for September 2026, as reported by Infobae, “La recaudación tributaria creció por encima de la inflación en septiembre”, 1 October 2026; Ámbito, “La recaudación de impuestos creció cerca de 4% real en septiembre…”, 1 October 2026 (quoting ARCA and IARAF); Clarín, “Pese a la caída del IVA, la recaudación subió 3,7% por encima de la inflación en septiembre”, 1 October 2026; El Intransigente, “Recaudación tributaria: subió 3,7% real en septiembre, pero cayó 2,6% en el año”, 1 October 2026; Ministry of Economy, August fiscal result (press release), September 2026; Clarín, “El mayor ajuste del año…”, September 2026; La Nación, “La recaudación impositiva se recuperó en septiembre con un crecimiento de 3,7%”, 1 October 2026; Banco Central de la República Argentina, wholesale reference rate (Comunicación A 3500), 1 October 2026: 1,523.23 pesos per US dollar. Retrieved 2 October 2026.

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