SpaceX faces massive share supply wave as lockups expire
SpaceX shares are trading below their IPO price as investors brace for a wave of lockup expirations starting in August that will dwarf the initial public offering in size.
SpaceX stock slid to an all-time low of $131 on Thursday after the company aborted a Starship rocket launch, pushing shares below the $135 June IPO price. The immediate setback, however, masks a larger structural overhang for the company: a scheduled release of billions of restricted shares beginning in late August.
SpaceX’s June 12 IPO placed less than 5% of its 13.2 billion outstanding shares in public hands. The first major tranche of locked-up stock, totaling 911.5 million shares, becomes eligible for sale on the second trading day following the company's first earnings report as a public entity. At the current price, that single block represents more than $115 billion in potential selling pressure, exceeding the $85.7 billion raised in the IPO itself.
A secondary trigger would release another 455.8 million shares if the stock closes at or above $175.50 for five of the ten days preceding that earnings report. With shares currently trading roughly 25% below that threshold, this tranche is unlikely to unlock. Regardless, smaller batches of about 7% of the locked shares will hit the market every two to three weeks from late August through October. A further 28% becomes sellable after the third-quarter report, and the standard lockup winds down entirely in early December. Elon Musk's personal stake remains locked until next June.
Large lockup expirations typically punish stocks that are already trending downward, as they introduce fresh supply into an environment of weak demand. SpaceX fits this profile, having declined 42% from its post-IPO peak of $225.64. The prospect of early investors and employees cashing out could keep a ceiling on any near-term recovery.
The underlying financials give potential sellers mixed motives. The Starlink connectivity unit is a strong performer, generating $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating income in 2025, with operating income doubling year over year. It added $3.3 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2026.
However, the company's newly acquired artificial intelligence segment posted a $6.4 billion operating loss in 2025 and a $2.5 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026. The space segment also operated in the red during both periods. These persistent losses outside the connectivity division may encourage locked-up shareholders to reduce their exposure once trading restrictions lift.
