Corn Futures Rally on Strong Export Demand and Dry Weather Forecasts
Corn futures closed near their weekly highs as robust US export sales and dry weather forecasts in key growing regions offset global supply increases, signaling tightening market dynamics for agricultural investors.
Corn futures shrugged off early weakness Friday to close near the day’s highs, gaining 2.25 to 3.5 cents across most contracts. The September contract rose 5.25 cents for the week, while December added 6.5 cents.
The rally found support from a resurgence in crude oil prices, which climbed $3.50 to trade back above $80 per barrel. Weather forecasts also underpinned prices, with the NOAA predicting minimal precipitation over the next seven days in much of the Dakotas, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Kansas.
Underlying demand remains a primary catalyst for the market. Following the latest USDA Export Sales report, old crop corn sales have reached 86.279 million metric tons. This volume represents 102 percent of the USDA’s export projection, outpacing each of the past three years.
Actual shipments are tracking at 87 percent of the USDA projection, totaling 73.058 million metric tons and exceeding last year’s pace. Forward-looking indicators are equally strong, with sales for the 2026/27 marketing year accumulating to 6.859 million metric tons, a 14.5 percent increase from the same period last year.
Institutional investors are adjusting their exposure to reflect these fundamentals. CFTC data released Friday showed managed money added 30,732 contracts to its net long position in corn futures and options during the week of July 14. This brought the net long position to 43,391 contracts as of Tuesday, driven largely by short covering.
Global Supply Dynamics
Despite the bullish US data, global supply forecasts present a mixed picture. Safras & Mercado projects Brazil’s total corn crop at 144.96 million metric tons for 2026/27, an increase of 4.59 million metric tons from the prior year.
However, European and South American harvests face headwinds. FranceAgriMer reported that corn conditions in France have deteriorated, with only 41 percent rated good or excellent, down six percentage points from the previous week and well below last year’s 72 percent. Meanwhile, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange noted that only 62 percent of Argentina’s corn crop has been harvested, lagging behind last year’s 80 percent pace.
The cash market mirrored the futures strength. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price rose 3.25 cents to $4.132, while new crop cash prices advanced 3.75 cents to $4.17 1/8.
