Soybean Futures Rebound on Strong Export Sales and Crude Oil Support
Soybean futures closed the week higher following robust new-crop export sales to China and Mexico, signaling sustained global demand despite a larger projected Brazilian harvest.
Soybean futures rebounded from late-week losses to close Friday with daily gains of 4.5 to 9.5 cents. The August contract settled at $12.045, finishing the week up 12.75 cents, while the November contract rose 12.25 cents over the same period. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price also advanced 10.75 cents to $11.6675.
The upward momentum was driven by fresh export business reported by the US Department of Agriculture. Private sales for new crop included 340,000 metric tons destined for China, 256,634 metric tons for Mexico, and 110,000 metric tons to unknown locations.
These additions bring total old crop soybean sales, including shipments and unshipped volumes, to 41.324 million metric tons. This figure aligns precisely with the USDA export projection, reflecting a steady 101 percent average of the projection over the last three years. While shipments sit at 38.18 million metric tons, or 92 percent of the USDA projection, new crop business has now reached 4.598 million metric tons.
Market dynamics diverged across related agricultural commodities, highlighting shifting crush margins for processors. Soymeal futures declined by $2.70 to $3.90, with the August contract slipping 20 cents over the week. Conversely, soy oil futures rallied 115 to 238 points, as the August contract surged 435 points. This strength was underpinned by broader energy markets, with crude oil climbing $3.50 per barrel at midday and heating oil rising to $4.083 per gallon.
Commitment of Traders data for the week ending July 14 indicates measured positioning among speculative funds. Traders added a modest 4,009 contracts to their net long position in soybean futures and options, bringing the total net long to 72,688 contracts by Tuesday. This suggests cautious bullishness rather than aggressive speculation.
Looking ahead, investors must balance this robust US demand against expanding South American supply. Safras & Mercado estimates the Brazilian soybean crop for the 2026/27 season at 180.1 million metric tons. If realized, this would represent a 1.8 million metric ton increase from the previous year, potentially capping long-term price rallies.
