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EUROS The World Financial Report
Nº 94 Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · World Edition
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OpenAI IPO Collapse?

Euros Room · 23 Sep 2026
OpenAI IPO Collapse?

OpenAI needs $280 billion through 2030 but generates just $40 billion annually, trailing profitable rival Anthropic as it races toward an IPO.

Local ordinances have blocked over 500 data center projects, and 70% of Americans oppose them nearby, threatening to cap AI adoption industry-wide.

A failed OpenAI IPO would devalue the entire AI sector, dragging down major public companies whose sky-high valuations are built on AI growth forecasts.

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IPOs tied directly to the AI industry are being delayed. SoftBank, one of the largest financiers of AI projects, is paying unexpected premiums on its debt. AI data centers are being delayed at a rate that threatens AI adoption across business, government, and personal levels. OpenAI faces questions about the viability of funding losses that could exist until the end of the decade.

SB Energy, owned by SoftBank and an AI infrastructure builder, has delayed its IPO, the New York Times reported. Holtec Nuclear, which makes small nuclear reactors, appears likely to delay its public offering. SoftBank is raising $10 billion but will need to pay junk-bond rates. Depending on duration, it must pay interest rates ranging from 8.75% to 9.875%, Bloomberg reported. Goldman Sachs issued a report that said AI debt funding has hit $575 billion so far in 2026.

According to several sources, local laws and ordinances have blocked construction of over 500 data centers. A Gallup poll showed 70% of Americans do not want data centers where they live. If this slowdown in building out AI capacity continues, there is concern that AI use will automatically be capped.

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OpenAI faces several threats as it moves toward an IPO that observers think will happen early next year. Rival Anthropic plans to go public in late 2026. If the Anthropic IPO stumbles, OpenAI faces a skeptical market. That alone could delay its IPO plans.

OpenAI and Anthropic face competition from US-based companies, which include Meta ( NASDAQ: META ) and Alphabet's ( NASDAQ: GOOG ) Google. A larger threat, however, is from China's AI products. They cost customers much less to use. They may not be as powerful as their American counterparts. Companies using AI have found that spending 80% less on Chinese AI works, because they may not need to build the world's most advanced applications. And Chinese AI appears to be catching up to OpenAI and Anthropic's best models.

Although the figure has changed more than once, OpenAI probably needs $280 billion to fund itself between today and 2030. Its annual revenue run rate was recently pegged at $40 billion. That is well behind Anthropic's run rate. And Anthropic has started to make money.

What happens if OpenAI cannot go public? It devalues the entire industry. That includes the public companies which have high valuations because AI is at the center of their growth forecasts.

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