Analysts see 150% upside in Viking Therapeutics despite long drug timeline
A recent pullback in Viking Therapeutics shares has analysts forecasting a 150% surge, though investors must weigh the promise of a dual-formulation weight-loss drug against years until pivotal trial data.
Viking Therapeutics shares have slipped following a 19% rally in June, but Wall Street analysts view the pullback as a prime entry point. Consensus price targets compiled by Visible Alpha sit just below $91, implying roughly 150% upside from the current valuation. This extreme bullishness is entirely contingent on the clinical trajectory of VK2735, the company’s lead candidate in the highly competitive obesity market.
The drug differentiates itself through a dual-formulation approach. Patients would initially administer VK2735 via subcutaneous injection before transitioning to an oral pill for weight maintenance or continued loss. An oral option addresses a major pain point in the current weight-loss market, where patients are often reluctant to undergo frequent injections. Furthermore, Phase 2 trial data indicated that VK2735 produces a steeper velocity of weight loss compared to rival drugs.
Despite these promising efficacy signals, the investment thesis is burdened by a long regulatory timeline. The subcutaneous Phase 3 trial is currently underway, but data will not be available until late 2027 at the earliest. An oral Phase 3 trial is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of this year, with results not expected until 2028. Capital will be locked up for years before investors receive definitive proof of commercial viability.
Clinical risks also linger. The Phase 2 trial for the oral formulation yielded questionable tolerability data, raising doubts about whether patients can comfortably adhere to the pill regimen over the long term.
Given this multi-year wait for Phase 3 readouts, near-term trading will likely be dictated by an ongoing Phase 1 maintenance dosing study. This trial is evaluating the transition from 19 weeks of subcutaneous injections to various maintenance doses. Results from the subcutaneous portion of this study are expected in the current quarter, offering a potential near-term catalyst. Oral maintenance data will follow in the first half of 2027. For cautious investors, waiting for these intermediate data points may be the most prudent strategy before building a position.
