S&P 500 rally ranks in top 10% historically as tech slumps
A sharp $1.5 trillion semiconductor selloff and surging oil prices have tested equities, but the S&P 500’s underlying rally remains historically robust.
A brutal five-session stretch for equities has wiped roughly $1.5 trillion in market value from the semiconductor sector since June 25. Memory chip makers, which represented the hottest trade of 2026, bore the brunt of the sell-off as investors aggressively took profits following parabolic gains. Micron alone shed nearly $350 billion in market capitalization. Sandisk, Intel, Applied Materials, and Lam Research each saw more than $100 billion erased.
The tech-driven decline was amplified by external macro pressures and weak corporate earnings. President Trump's announcement of a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz triggered a surge in oil prices. This spike in energy costs serves as a direct headwind to the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates, a dynamic that rattled broader market sentiment. Netflix compounded the negative tone, with shares dropping 8% in early Friday trading after the streaming giant reported its second consecutive underwhelming quarter.
However, keeping focus on the longer-term trajectory reveals a much different picture for portfolio managers. The recent volatility does little to alter the structural strength of the current cycle. According to a recent analysis by Goldman Sachs, the S&P 500 has surged 95% since the end of 2022.
That pace of growth places the current bull market in the top 10% of all historical cycles at this juncture, drawing on data that stretches back to 1928. For context, the top quartile of historical bull markets logged gains of roughly 50% over a comparable period, while the median returned just 35% after three and a half years. The benchmark has also climbed 51% specifically since its April 2025 low.
"Market momentum is incredibly strong," strategists at the Kobeissi Letter observed. For market professionals, the implication is clear: while a confluence of geopolitical risk and sector-specific profit-taking can cause acute short-term pain, the underlying equity rally remains historically durable. It would take a substantially worse deterioration in the macroeconomic environment to genuinely unsettle the broader bull trend.
