Bitcoin breaks $64,500 support as long-term holders sell
Bitcoin's slide to roughly $63,000 is driven by a broad macro risk retreat and the capitulation of long-term holders, though limited leverage and stabilizing ETF flows may constrain further downside.
Bitcoin is trading around $63,020, down 1.7% on the day and 50% below its October record of $126,080. The token fell to an intraday low of $62,640 on Wednesday after failing to hold $65,000. That drop broke below a "$64,500 Put Wall" of options open interest that had provided short-term support.
The decline mirrors a broader unwind in risk assets that is trimming institutional exposure to the cryptocurrency sector. "Risk appetite across the broader markets has cooled down significantly," said Tim Sun, senior researcher at Hashkey, pointing to corrections in global stocks alongside a rapid deleveraging in semiconductor and AI-related assets.
The most acute downward pressure originates from investors who bought near previous peaks. More than 65% of coins moving onto exchanges are from long-term holders realizing losses, according to Glassnode. This dynamic, which the analytics firm likened to earlier bear-market phases, shows investors who held for one to two years are "gradually accepting losses and exiting," Sun said. This wave of selling has capped recovery momentum, keeping the asset suppressed even after an encouraging U.S. inflation report.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are providing only a fragile offset to this structural selling. After a $425 million outflow on Monday, the funds saw inflows of $181 million on Tuesday and $108 million on Wednesday, bringing total inflows to about $51 billion since their 2024 launch. Sun characterized the return to inflows as a "marginal recovery" insufficient to lift prices, while Hathorn argued the flows suggest "longer-term investors are gradually returning to the market."
Despite the negative price action, structural risks appear contained for institutional portfolios. The derivatives market shows "no leverage-related crowding," with selling concentrated in the spot market, Sun noted. While Glassnode cautioned that bear markets rarely find "durable footing" until older holders exhaust their selling, Sun pointed out that on-chain realized losses are starting to decline, meaning the "liquidation intensity of long-term holders may have begun to peak" and set up a "choppy bottom" absent a larger external shock.
