Bitcoin Holds $62,000 as CryptoQuant Warns Bear Market Persists
Bitcoin's retreat to $62,000 pauses a recent 11% bounce, with on-chain data suggesting improving demand but warning investors that a structural bear market remains intact.
Bitcoin slipped to $62,000 today, pulling back from a brief push to $64,000. The move trims a recovery that began last week when the token hit a low of $57,700. Despite the dip, the price remains above the $60,000 threshold widely watched as a key support level.
The pullback underscores a cautious outlook from CryptoQuant, which published its weekly report today. The analytics firm views the rebound as a temporary respite rather than the start of a new bull run. For institutional investors, distinguishing between a bear-market bounce and a structural trend reversal is critical for portfolio risk management.
CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index currently sits at 20, firmly inside the bearish zone of 40 or below. A reading above 60 is required to signal a sustainable bull market. Until that metric shifts, the firm treats the current price action strictly as a recovery within a broader downturn.
Beneath the surface, market internals are healing. Total 30-day demand, which includes spot and perpetual futures, had collapsed to negative 650,000 BTC in early June. That marked the steepest negative reading since 2022, but the figure has since returned to neutral. Speculative futures demand has turned positive, while spot selling has eased to its slowest pace since mid-May.
US institutional appetite is also showing signs of stabilization. The Coinbase Premium Index, a proxy for American spot demand, remains slightly negative. However, it has tracked higher alongside the price recovery from its early June trough. Furthermore, an on-chain metric tracking unrealized losses for coins held one to three months dropped below negative 24% last month. That well surpasses the negative 12% threshold that typically signals short-term holder capitulation and local bottoms.
Historical seasonality provides additional context for the recent bounce. July has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, delivering gains of roughly 20% in 2018 and 17% in 2022 even during prolonged bear cycles. CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno noted that entering July off a bear-market low skews near-term risk toward further gains.
However, the broader trend remains weak. A durable rally will require the Bull Score Index to break above 60, a threshold that remains distant despite improving on-chain fundamentals. Investors are likely to monitor demand metrics closely in the coming weeks to see if this seasonal bounce can evolve into a genuine trend reversal.
