GAP cuts 2026 traffic forecast as strong peso hits resort demand

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico slashed its 2026 full-year passenger traffic guidance from growth of 2% to 5% to a contraction of up to 3%. The surprise revision, released on July 14, sent its shares down more than 5.6% to lead decliners on the Mexican exchange.

The downgrade forces analysts to confront an uncomfortable reality after years of Mexican airport operators routinely beating estimates. This is the first year the post-pandemic travel escalator runs backwards.

Three distinct pressures triggered the move. A Mexican peso that strengthened 10.9% against the dollar year-over-year acted as a hidden tax, shrinking dollar-linked tariff revenues when translated into the company’s reporting currency. Simultaneously, international traffic to Mexico’s Pacific resorts collapsed, with Puerto Vallarta dropping 27.1% and Los Cabos falling 11.4%. A hoped-for geographic buffer also failed, as Jamaican revenues slid 18.3%.

Dilution clouds the picture

The underlying financial mechanics, however, remain intact. Operating margins actually expanded by 220 basis points during the second quarter, meaning the miss against the Ps.12,360 million consensus was entirely a function of currency translation and falling passenger volumes, not cost overruns.

Comparing these results to prior periods is further complicated by the May 1 consolidation of Cross Border Xpress. The acquisition added a strategically valuable cross-border terminal connecting San Diego to Tijuana, but it also issued 89.7 million new shares. That represents an 18% dilution and loaded the balance sheet with Ps.30.8 billion of goodwill, making per-share metrics an unreliable gauge this quarter.

The traffic divergence within GAP’s network tells a broader macroeconomic story. Guadalajara, a hub tied to nearshoring and technology, posted solid domestic and international growth. The weakness is concentrated precisely where American leisure tourists and border crossers used to be.

This split has left the analyst community sharply divided. Four brokers maintain buy ratings, four are on hold, and one has issued a strong sell. The consensus price target of $267.91 still implies a 19% upside to the American depositary share price, but the wide rating spread highlights a core debate over whether this is a temporary air pocket or a permanent downshift.

Investors will now track monthly passenger disclosures as the clearest real-time gauge of whether the negative 3% floor holds. They will also watch the USD/MXN rate, which sat near 17.5 at quarter’s end, and compare GAP’s resort weakness against upcoming results from peers ASUR and OMA to determine if the problem is isolated to the Pacific corridor.