Nifty near make-or-break level; 23,950 holds the key

On Tuesday, the Nifty 50 began the session on a muted note and initially held around the 24,000 level. Buying interest from lower levels helped the index recover, cross the previous session’s high and touch an intraday peak of 24,143.15. The move, however, lost momentum as selling pressure returned at higher levels.

The index later slipped below 24,000 and also breached the previous session’s low, falling to 23,952.55. A late recovery during the Closing Auction Session (CAS) helped trim most of the losses, with the Nifty eventually ending at 24,055.80, down 24.60 points or 0.10%.

The session formed a small-bodied candle with long shadows on both sides, resembling a High Wave candle. The pattern reflects sharp intraday swings and a lack of clear control between buyers and sellers.

From a price structure perspective, the formation of a lower low along with a negative close keeps the near-term setup under pressure. At the same time, the index has managed to retain the 24,000 mark on a closing basis for the second straight session.

In both sessions, the Nifty slipped below the previous day’s low but recovered before the close. The index is also hovering near the 61.8% retracement level of the recent upswing, making the current zone important for the next directional move.

The 23,950 level remains the immediate support to track. A sustained move below this level could weaken the setup further and bring the July 27 gap area between 23,892 and 23,824 into focus.

On the higher side, resistance is seen in the 24,209-24,244 band. This zone includes the 50-DMA as well as the declining trendline drawn from the August 3 swing high. A decisive move above this band could improve the near-term structure and allow the index to move towards the 20-DMA near 24,312.

The Nifty continues to trade below both the 20-DMA and 50-DMA. The 20-DMA is sloping lower, while the 50-DMA has turned largely flat, indicating that the earlier upward momentum has faded.

For now, the market remains caught between support around 23,950 and resistance near 24,209-24,244. Holding above 24,000 keeps immediate downside pressure in check, but a stronger recovery would require the index to reclaim the 50-DMA and sustain above the overhead trendline resistance.

Oberoi Realty has found support near the rising trendline drawn by connecting the June and August lows. This support zone also aligns with the rising 20-DMA, adding strength to the technical setup.

On Tuesday, the stock formed a bullish candle after holding this support area, indicating renewed buying interest near the trendline and moving-average support. The stock continues to trade above its 20-DMA, 50-DMA, 100-DMA and 200-DMA. More importantly, these moving averages remain aligned in a favourable sequence, which keeps the broader trend positive.

Going forward, a sustained move above the ₹ 1,882-1,885 zone could support further upside towards ₹ 1,940, followed by ₹ 1,960. On the downside, ₹ 1,840 can be kept as the stop-loss level.

Disclaimer : This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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