Reliance Industries set to report Q1 earnings as O2C recovery offsets retail slump
Reliance Industries is expected to post a 4-10% rise in Q1 EBITDA driven by an oil-to-chemicals recovery, offering a potential catalyst for a stock that has fallen 17.5% this year.
Reliance Industries will release its first-quarter earnings for the 2027 financial year after the market closes on Friday. Brokerages estimate the conglomerate's consolidated EBITDA will rise between 4% and 10% year-on-year, driven primarily by a rebound in its oil-to-chemicals division and steady digital expansion.
The O2C segment is benefiting from stronger refining margins, tighter petrochemical spreads, a weaker rupee, and operational gains from its SEZ refinery. Jio, the telecom unit currently preparing for an IPO, is also forecast to buoy the bottom line through subscriber additions and higher average revenue per user.
These gains will need to offset pressure elsewhere. The retail arm remains a soft spot as weak consumer spending weighs on margins. Additionally, the upstream oil and gas segment is expected to post a year-on-year decline due to reduced production from the KG-D6 block.
Technical crossroads
Shares of Reliance closed at Rs 1,296.60 on Thursday, up 1.6% over the past week but down more than 2% over the past month. The stock has lost 17.5% so far in 2026, and technical indicators suggest it is stuck in a holding pattern.
“The ADX remains flat, indicating a lack of trend strength and subdued volatility, while the MACD slope is also flattening, reinforcing the ongoing sideways bias. A decisive breakout or breakdown beyond the current range is likely to determine the stock's next directional move,” according to an analyst.
Historical trading patterns
Investors are bracing for volatility, though historical reactions to earnings have been mixed. Over the past nine quarters, Reliance shares have typically moved in a narrow range of negative 2% to positive 1% on the day results are published. The following session usually sees wider swings, fluctuating between negative 3% and positive 5%.
The stock has historically trended downward in the week after earnings, with drops of around 5% in January and nearly 6% last July. The exception was the most recent quarter. Despite reporting a 13% drop in net profit to Rs 16,971 crore in April, the stock surged 3% the next day and notched its best nine-quarter post-earnings weekly gain of 10%.
