Indian equities slip on crude oil fears as banking stocks show resilience
Geopolitical tensions pushed crude oil prices higher and dragged Indian benchmarks lower on Monday, but a strong performance in banking shares signals underlying sectoral strength for traders.
Indian equity benchmarks closed lower on Monday as selling pressure weighed on utility, information technology, and FMCG stocks. The 30-share BSE Sensex dropped 307.24 points, or 0.40 percent, to finish at 76,957.27, while the 50-share NSE Nifty fell 95.25 points, or 0.39 percent, to settle at 24,080.40.
Renewed tensions in West Asia drove crude oil prices higher, sparking inflation concerns and expectations that interest rates will remain elevated. This macroeconomic backdrop triggered a clear sectoral divergence, with healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and banking stocks gaining ground while media, metals, and cement lagged.
The Bank Nifty index bucked the broader weakness, climbing 528.65 points, or 0.92 percent, to close at 58,024.95 after finding strong buying interest near the 57,200 support zone. Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, noted that the index decisively broke above its 20 and 50 exponential moving averages, forming a strong bullish candle.
“Sustaining above the 20 and 50 EMA keeps the near-term structure positive, while a decisive move above the resistance zone can further strengthen the bullish setup,” Bagadia said. He identified 57,200 to 57,300 as immediate support and 58,700 to 58,800 as key resistance for the banking gauge.
Despite the intraday recovery from a low of 23,993.60, the Nifty remains below all key moving averages, keeping the broader trend cautious. Market volatility increased as the India VIX rose 4.78 percent to 11.19, while the relative strength index stood at 43.70.
Bagadia expects the Nifty to maintain a sideways bias, with immediate support at 23,900 to 23,950 and resistance at 24,200 to 24,250. “A sustained move above 24,250 could support a recovery towards higher levels, whereas a break below 23,900 may resume the selling pressure,” he added.
Technical breakouts
Navigating this environment, Bagadia recommended five shares with strong technical breakout structures for Tuesday. Lumax AutoTechnologies is a buy at ₹2,078 with a target of ₹2,260 and a stop loss of ₹1,965, supported by an RSI of 70.11. Vijaya Diagnostic Centre is recommended as a buy at ₹1,518, targeting ₹1,635 with a stop loss of ₹1,450.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank is positioned as a buy at ₹938, aiming for ₹1,010 with a stop loss of ₹878, as it trades near its all-time high zone. EPL is recommended for purchase at ₹262, targeting ₹283 with a stop loss of ₹249, following a pullback on lower volumes that tested the 20-day exponential moving average.
Finally, Sansera Engineering is a buy at ₹4,018, with a target of ₹4,333 and a stop loss of ₹3,820. The stock closed up 4.12 percent on Monday, maintaining a well-defined uptrend with perfectly aligned moving averages.
