Bitcoin Fluctuates Near $78,000 as US Bond Yields Test Two-Decade Highs
Bitcoin traded with heightened volatility near $78,000 as US Treasury yields approached 20-year highs, prompting major investors to reassess debt exposure and highlighting the cryptocurrency's evolving role as a macroeconomic hedge.
Bitcoin experienced sharp intraday fluctuations around the $78,000 mark during Monday’s Wall Street session. The price action coincided with US Treasury yields climbing toward levels not seen in two decades, despite recent policy signals from Washington.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed the rising yields in an interview, hinting at potential market interventions. However, he clarified his current stance, stating, “I haven’t bought anything yet,” and noted he was “fine” with yields rebounding following recent announcements.
Earlier this month, the Treasury committed to doubling its debt buyback transactions to $4 billion starting in September. Despite that move, the 10-year yield climbed to 4.76 percent on Monday, matching its highest point since January 2025.
The 30-year yield reached 5.269 percent, finishing just six basis points shy of its peak from January 2007. Market observers noted the disconnect between policy intentions and market pricing, with trading resource The Kobeissi Letter observing that the bond market appears to be completely ignoring the US Treasury.
This dynamic is reshaping how institutional investors view traditional safe havens. Ray Dalio recently voiced skepticism regarding the Treasury’s capacity to control the bond market, forecasting a potential US debt crisis.
Advising clients on portfolio construction, Dalio wrote that investors should consider underweighting debt assets like bonds. He recommended overweighting gold and a bit of Bitcoin to hedge against geopolitical conflicts and weakening national balance sheets.
Broader equity markets also felt the pressure of macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index traded approximately 0.4 percent lower as investors digested tensions surrounding new US-Iran strikes.
Crypto Technical Outlook
Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin has maintained critical technical support at its 50-week exponential moving average of $77,269. The asset is on track for its strongest August performance since 2017, with month-to-date gains approaching 25 percent.
However, analysts warn that immediate upward momentum may be fading. Trader Rekt Capital highlighted a hidden bearish divergence on daily charts between Bitcoin’s price and its relative strength index.
With the daily relative strength index measuring 70.7, the asset remains in overbought territory. Rekt Capital cautioned that if the daily metric continues to make lower highs, it will contribute to mounting weakness heading into the monthly close.
