Kalshi Permanently Bans Former Rep. George Santos for Trading on Own Actions
The prediction market platform has issued its first lifetime ban and a substantial fine to the former lawmaker, signaling stricter enforcement against market manipulation by political figures.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has permanently banned former Republican Representative George Santos and fined him $71,356. The disciplinary action targets his alleged use of the app to trade on his own attendance at this year’s State of the Union address.
In the weeks preceding President Donald Trump’s February speech, Santos allegedly generated more than $17,000 in profits by betting on whether he would attend. Kalshi stated that he made a series of public statements to influence the price of Yes and No contracts, including false or misleading claims.
For instance, Santos posted on X days before the address that he would be in the gallery, only to later reveal he was watching from an airport. The platform determined these actions violated its rules against trading on non-public information, marking the first lifetime ban of its kind for the company.
This enforcement highlights growing regulatory scrutiny over prediction markets and the potential for political figures to manipulate contract prices. It underscores the structural vulnerability of these platforms to asymmetric information when the subjects of the bets directly control the underlying outcomes.
Kalshi is not the first entity to penalize Santos for this behavior. After the platform referred the matter to federal investigators, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ordered him in July to pay $35,000 and banned him from trading for three years.
Prior to that federal action, rival platform Polymarket ended its paid influencer relationship with Santos in June amid the ongoing investigation. Santos, who was expelled from the House in 2023 and had his 87-month fraud sentence commuted by President Trump last fall, responded to Kalshi’s penalty on X. He wrote, "Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform. Let's see how much longer you guys are around for," ending the post with a "kiss mark" emoji.
The action against Santos is part of a wider enforcement sweep by Kalshi regarding self-dealing. The company also announced settlements with three political candidates who traded on contracts related to their own candidacies, resulting in three-year bans and financial penalties for all involved.
Unlike Santos, the company noted that these candidates cooperated fully with the investigations. The group includes a gubernatorial candidate in California, a gubernatorial hopeful in Maine, and Laurie Buckhout, the Republican nominee for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District.
Buckhout, who faces Democratic incumbent Rep. Don Davis, must pay a penalty of just under $2,600. She acknowledged the error in a statement, noting, "I bet on myself. Literally." She added that it was a dumb mistake she worked to make right once she learned of the issue.
