Could a Chinese Blacklist Be Bullish for Rare-Earth Stocks?
Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China are central to the bull cases for stocks like USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) and MP Materials (NYSE: MP). China dominates the global market for the extraction and processing of rare-earth minerals, and the company has used its position in the sector as a key lever as it navigates increasingly adversarial relations with the U.S., Japan, and the European Union.
The U.S. and key allies have been making moves to reduce their dependence on Chinese rare-earth mineral supplies, but these initiatives are generally still in relatively early stages compared to what is needed. In June, China announced it was implementing export restrictions on the sale of goods and technologies to USA Rare Earth and MP Materials that could be used to support sourcing by foreign militaries.
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Could this actually be a bullish catalyst for U.S.-based rare-earth companies?
While Chinese export restrictions could create moderate near-term headwinds for USA Rare Earth and MP Materials, both companies had already taken significant steps to diversify their supply chains away from relying on Chinese goods and services. In that regard, the export restrictions can be viewed as accelerating a shift that was already underway -- and as a development that could actually wind up being a positive long-term catalyst.
If relations between China and the U.S. and its allies continue to deteriorate and China further restrict access to rare-earth materials, it will become crucial to secure them from other sources. Removing supply chain reliance on Chinese goods and technologies reduces the potential for disruption as U.S.-based rare-earth mining companies move to scale their operations.
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Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends MP Materials. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .
