Netflix leans on NFL, World Cup rights to hit $3bn ad target
Netflix is allocating 5% of its content budget to live sports to meet a $3 billion year-end ad revenue target, signaling a disciplined shift that positions the streamer as a new frontier for leagues seeking premium media rights partners.
Netflix expects its advertising revenue to hit $3 billion by the end of the year, with executives pointing to live sports as the primary catalyst for reaching that target. During its third-quarter earnings call on Thursday, the company confirmed that live events will account for 5% of its content budget in 2024. This capital is being deployed to secure the type of eventized programming required to attract large, synchronous audiences at scale.
The streamer's live sports roster already includes weekly WWE Raw events, golf, and one-off fighting events, alongside the upcoming MLB Field of Dreams game in August. This week, Netflix aired the MLB Home Run Derby to an audience of 5.3 million viewers. While that marks the event's smallest audience since 2003, such viewership declines are standard when programming shifts from traditional broadcast to streaming.
The company's heavier financial bets are concentrated on the NFL and global soccer. Netflix will air five live NFL games this regular season, starting with a Week One matchup in Australia between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. The schedule includes a night-before-Thanksgiving game, two Christmas Day fixtures, and a to-be-announced Week 18 game, representing the high-profile inventory needed to command premium advertising rates.
Netflix's largest long-term sports investment is its secured rights to the 2027 and 2031 FIFA Women’s World Cup. To build a viewing pipeline, the company is utilizing its unscripted division, releasing the film "The 99'ers" ahead of next year's tournament, following previous documentaries on the squad. However, Netflix cannot acquire English-language rights to U.S. women's team matches leading up to the 2027 event, as those are locked with Turner Sports through 2030.
For media investors, Netflix's strict 5% content budget cap signals a disciplined approach to sports rights rather than a disruptive bidding war. This positions the streamer as an attractive partner for leagues eager to create smaller, premium media packages to maximize revenues. While Netflix lost Formula 1 rights to Apple, its historical success with "Drive to Survive" demonstrates its ability to build value for sports properties.
Looking ahead, the sheer volume of MLB games—162 per team annually—makes baseball a logical candidate for supplemental packaging. Furthermore, with the NHL's media contract expiring after the 2027-28 season and college athletics increasingly embracing standalone streaming deals like Duke's recent agreement with Amazon, Netflix has a clear runway to selectively expand its live sports footprint without straying from its financial guardrails.
