Mexico Targets $43.6 Billion in Renewable Energy Investment Under New Reforms
President Claudia Sheinbaum’s new energy framework reverses years of state-centric policies, unlocking billions in private capital for Mexico’s renewable infrastructure and signaling a major shift for Latin American energy investors.
Mexico is accelerating its renewable energy transition through a strategic roadmap that opens the power sector to private capital. President Claudia Sheinbaum has introduced reforms allowing private companies to contribute up to 9.6 gigawatts of renewable capacity by 2030. This framework permits private entities to account for 46 per cent of electricity generation, with the state-owned CFE operating the remainder.
The government has committed a $43.6 billion investment package to add over 32 GW of new electrical generation capacity by 2030, with at least 70 per cent derived from renewable sources. Consequently, the share of renewables in the national electricity mix is projected to rise from 24 per cent to 38 per cent within the decade. Specific sector targets include a 140 per cent increase in photovoltaic generation and a 70 per cent expansion in wind energy.
This aggressive deployment marks a sharp departure from the 2018 to 2024 administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, which heavily restricted foreign investment in favor of nationalisation. That previous policy environment deterred international capital and stalled the country’s green transition. Sheinbaum’s pivot is now actively courting the private sector to bridge the infrastructure gap.
For global investors, the regulatory shift presents substantial opportunities in a market with high solar potential. Installed photovoltaic capacity is forecast to more than triple to 37.8 GW by 2035, growing at a compound annual rate of 10.7 per cent. Despite solar providing only 6.6 per cent of electricity generation in 2023, the thinktank Ember Energy notes the country’s climate could eventually supply nearly 90 per cent of national demand.
Market confidence is already materialising in large-scale project financing. Danish investor Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners recently reached a final investment decision for the 420 MW La Esperanza solar-plus-storage project in Campeche. Scheduled to come online in 2028 with 150 MW of battery storage, the development is backed by approximately $510 million in debt facilities from BNP Paribas, JPMorgan Chase Bank, Natixis CIB, Santander, and Scotiabank.
Parallel growth is expected in the wind sector, which currently operates 76 farms with 8,131 MW of installed capacity across 16 states. Industry estimates project $4 billion to $5 billion in wind energy investment by 2030, adding 2,159 MW of new capacity. Meanwhile, the Puerto Peñasco solar farm in Sonora is expanding toward a final 1 GW capacity and 246 MW of battery storage, positioning it to become the largest solar plant in the Americas.
The administration views this diversification as critical to the nation's long-term economic stability. As Sheinbaum stated during the roadmap announcement, “Mexico not only has oil: it has sun and wind, clean energies that allow for fewer environmental impacts.” Achieving these 2030 targets will require sustained regulatory support and continued access to international debt and equity markets.
