Indian Markets Eye Positive Open as Middle East Tensions Offset Global Risk Relief

Indian benchmark indices are projected to open higher on Thursday, offering a potential reprieve after a seven-session losing streak. The domestic benchmarks extended their decline in the previous session, with the Sensex falling 325.78 points to 76,909.68 and the Nifty 50 dropping 76.60 points to settle at 24,078.30. Early indicators from the Gift Nifty point to a positive start, trading at a premium over the previous close of Nifty futures.

This tentative optimism unfolds against escalating Middle East tensions. US President Donald Trump announced sweeping economic measures against Iran, describing the strategy as “Economic Warfare and Isolation on an unprecedented scale.”

The rhetoric has kept investors vigilant regarding shipping risks through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose 0.3 percent to $91.87 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude held steady, reflecting the market’s careful assessment of potential energy supply disruptions.

Despite the constructive backdrop from easing US Treasury yields and overnight Wall Street gains, domestic analysts urge caution. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, noted that persistent geopolitical uncertainty is likely to keep investors guarded despite the improved global risk sentiment.

The Nifty 50 recently closed below the 24,100 mark, testing critical trendline support around the 24,000 level. Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking, warned that a decisive break below this threshold could extend the correction toward the 23,650 to 23,800 zone. Conversely, the 24,200 to 24,400 region is expected to act as a strong resistance band in the event of a rebound.

The financial sector faces similar technical headwinds. The Bank Nifty has slipped below its 20-day exponential moving average, moving closer to the crucial 57,000 support zone. Analysts indicate that holding this level is vital to prevent deeper weakness, with a sustained move above the 57,500 to 57,600 resistance area required to revive buying momentum.

Amid the broader volatility, market experts have identified selective intraday opportunities. Analysts at Choice Broking and Anand Rathi highlighted names such as ICICI Bank, Avenue Supermarts, and Elgi Equipments for potential short-term gains, underscoring a stock-specific approach in a cautious macro environment.