JPMorgan Dropped Polymarket as Client but Still Courts IPO Mandate
The bank severed the prediction market's accounts citing regulatory concerns in October 2025, yet remains in contention to underwrite a potential listing.
JPMorgan Chase ended its banking relationship with Polymarket in October 2025, directing the prediction-market operator to find a new lender. The move, reported by the Financial Times and independently confirmed by Reuters, was attributed to regulatory concerns. Yet the same bank is positioning itself for an underwriting role should Polymarket pursue an initial public offering.
The contradiction encapsulates Wall Street's uneasy calculus around prediction markets. JPMorgan declined to comment. Polymarket transferred its accounts to an unidentified lender but insisted the relationship with JPMorgan remains intact.
"We maintain a close, active relationship with JPMorgan across multiple entities, operational integrations, and material handling of customer fund flows," a Polymarket spokesperson said, adding that CEO Shayne Coplan had spoken at three of the bank's flagship events in the past year, including a February gathering for private-banking clients in Miami alongside Tom Brady.
Regulatory overhang
The account closure came while Polymarket was still barred from serving U.S. customers under a 2022 CFTC settlement that carried a $1.4 million penalty. The company re-entered the American market only after acquiring derivatives exchange QCX LLC and clearinghouse QC Clearing LLC for $112 million. The CFTC designated QCX as a contract market in July 2025.
The FT reported that the CFTC maintains an ongoing investigation into Polymarket. A CFTC spokesperson told The Block in June it could neither confirm nor deny the inquiry. That uncertainty complicates any near-term listing.
A $20 billion question
Polymarket is in early discussions to raise roughly $1 billion at a valuation exceeding $20 billion, according to Reuters. That would more than double the $9 billion mark set in October 2025, when NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange committed up to $2 billion.
For prospective IPO underwriters, the sector's legal exposure is mounting. Baltimore sued both Polymarket and rival Kalshi on Thursday over sports-related contracts, and a Washington state court ordered Kalshi to halt most of its offerings there the same day. The New York City Council has opened a probe into marketing practices at Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase and Gemini Titan.
Volume gap widens
Investors weighing the sector must also reckon with shifting competitive dynamics. Kalshi recorded $40 billion in trading volume in July, compared with a combined $12.9 billion across Polymarket and its U.S. entity, according to The Block's data.
The broader political backdrop adds another layer. President Trump signed an executive order in August 2025 directing regulators to investigate so-called debanking of crypto firms. Coplan sits on the CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee, which convenes for the first time on August 20, a day before Trump is expected to host crypto and prediction-market executives at the White House.
