Indian equities face lower open as crude and currency pressures trap benchmarks
India’s main equity indices are expected to open lower as rising global crude prices and a depreciating rupee keep the Nifty 50 and Sensex confined to narrow trading bands.
Indian equity benchmarks are poised for a weak start on Thursday, following a decline in the previous session. The broader market is reflecting mixed global cues after both main indices closed lower on Wednesday.
The Nifty 50 settled 35.75 points, or 0.15 per cent, lower at 24,435.95, failing to hold the 24,500 mark. The Sensex mirrored this downturn, dropping 187.90 points, or 0.24 per cent, to finish at 77,966.35.
Market professionals point to external macroeconomic headwinds as the primary driver of this volatility. Rising international crude oil prices combined with the depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar are weighing heavily on investor sentiment.
Early indicators suggest continued pressure for the opening bell. Gift Nifty traded around 24,446.5, showing a modest 24-point premium over the previous close of Nifty futures.
Technically, the Nifty 50 is exhibiting a choppy short-term trend. Nagaraj Shetti, a senior technical research analyst at HDFC Securities, noted that the index formed a small negative candle with a long lower shadow, resembling a bullish hammer.
“The short-term trend of Nifty 50 continues to remain choppy with a weak bias,” Shetti said. He identified 24,300 as a potential buying-on-dips opportunity, while 24,600 serves as the immediate resistance level needed for a trend reversal.
Osho Krishan, chief manager of technical and derivative research at Angel One, highlighted the 20-day exponential moving average at 24,350 as the immediate support zone. He warned that a decisive break below the intraday swing low of 24,265 would turn the outlook bearish.
For the index to revive bullish momentum, it must clear the 24,550 to 24,600 resistance band. “Until such a breakout materialises, maintaining a cautious stance on the benchmark index remains prudent,” Krishan said.
The Sensex presents a similar picture of consolidation. Sachin Gupta, vice-president of technical research at Choice Equity Broking, observed that the index formed a bearish red candle but found underlying resilience near its 20- and 100-day exponential moving averages.
“From a broader perspective, the Sensex continues to trade in a sideways range between key support and resistance levels,” Gupta said. He pegged crucial support at 77,250 to 77,500, with immediate resistance between 78,200 and 78,400.
The banking sector offered a slight reprieve, with the Bank Nifty index recovering from initial weakness on the back of strong buying in public sector banks. However, the index still faced resistance in the 57,750 to 57,790 zone before slipping to an intraday low of 57,470.
Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, identified 58,300 to 58,400 as the immediate resistance for the banking gauge. A sustained move above this range could extend a pullback towards 58,800, while the 57,400 to 57,500 zone remains the immediate downside support.
