Brent Holds Above $89 as Hormuz Traffic Data Contradicts US Claims
Brent crude rose above $89 a barrel as conflicting US and Iranian claims over the Strait of Hormuz kept supply risk premiums elevated despite Washington's assertions that oil flows have normalized.
Brent crude rose 0.64% to $89.60 in early European trade on Wednesday, while WTI gained 0.94% to $83.90. The price increases came as the United States and Iran offered starkly divergent accounts of the security situation at the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway is a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies, making any operational uncertainty a direct driver of oil valuations.
U.S. President Donald Trump asserted on Tuesday that Washington maintains complete authority over the passage. “We own it,” Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews. He issued a stark warning to Tehran, stating, “at some point, maybe they’ll do something, and then they get blown away.”
Iran immediately rejected this framing, maintaining that the strait will stay shut unless the U.S. ends the conflict and satisfies Tehran's demands. This public stalemate highlights a massive gap between the political rhetoric coming from Washington and the operational reality on the water. For oil markets, the resulting ambiguity is enough to sustain an elevated risk premium.
U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright attempted to calm these market fears on Tuesday by claiming that Middle East oil flows have successfully normalized. Wright pointed specifically to Sunday traffic, arguing it exceeded pre-conflict averages. However, this official U.S. assessment appears to directly contradict independent ship-tracking data.
Instead of normalizing, physical traffic through the strait has visibly contracted this week. Vessel counts sank to just six ships on Monday as heightened security risks and doubts about the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations kept tankers wary. For commodities investors, the physical shipping data remains a far more reliable indicator of immediate supply risk than political assurances.
The structural nature of the standoff suggests this supply risk will persist. Wendy Sherman, former U.S. deputy secretary of state, characterized the current situation as a stalemate. She told Bloomberg TV that reopening the strait sustainably requires the U.S. to either permit voluntary tolls for Iran and Oman, or provide deep sanctions relief and release frozen assets.
Neither concession appears imminent, meaning markets should expect continued volatility. As long as there is a discrepancy between Washington’s claims of normalized traffic and the reality of declining vessel counts, Brent is likely to find strong support above $89. Traders are effectively pricing in a prolonged period of logistical friction rather than a swift diplomatic resolution.
