Hormuz transit down 52% as US strikes sink Iran ceasefire
A third night of US strikes against Iran has collapsed Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic by half and pushed Brent crude to $85 a barrel after Tehran attacked two Emirati tankers, shattering a recent ceasefire deal.
The US has completed a third consecutive night of strikes against Iranian military targets. US Central Command said a five-hour mission hit coastal defense systems, missile and drone sites, and maritime capabilities to further degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping.
Iran retaliated by targeting Gulf states. The UAE Defense Ministry reported that two national tankers, Mombasa and AI Bahiyah, were hit by Iranian cruise missiles in the strait's southern lane inside Omani waters. One Indian crew member was killed and eight others were injured, with both vessels sustaining material damage from onboard fires.
The escalation immediately rippled through energy markets. Brent crude rose 2% to $85 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate gained 2.3% to $80. The price jump reflects renewed uncertainty over a waterway that previously transported a fifth of the world's oil and gas.
Physical shipping through the strait is contracting sharply. Confirmed crossings fell approximately 52% week on week from July 10 to 12, according to data from Kpler. Vessels are abandoning Omani and International Maritime Organization-authorized corridors in favor of Iranian and dark routes.
The shift in routing and direct attacks on commercial vessels are driving up costs for shipowners. Lloyd's List Intelligence noted that war risk premiums for the Strait of Hormuz are expected to increase sharply. Charterers and owners have paused transit decisions entirely while assessing the threat.
The military exchanges effectively terminate an interim US-Iran agreement signed last month. That deal had established a 60-day negotiation window and a ceasefire intended to reopen the strait to normal traffic. The truce collapsed hours after Donald Trump ordered a reinstated blockade on Iran in the strait on Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET and floated a 20% toll on transiting ships.
Bahrain, which hosts the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, also activated missile-alert sirens early Tuesday. The UAE Defense Ministry stated it would remain "on the highest level of readiness and preparedness to address any threats" and would "take all necessary measures to respond to any attempts to undermine the country's security and stability."
