Brazil set to dominate world food trade, OECD forecasts
A new OECD-FAO outlook projects Latin America, led by Brazil, will remain the world’s largest net food exporter over the next decade, structurally underpinning agribusiness investment despite softening commodity prices.
Latin America, anchored by Brazil, will remain the world’s largest net food exporter over the next decade, according to a joint agricultural outlook published by the OECD and the UN’s FAO. The forecast projects global farm production rising roughly 13 percent through 2035, driven primarily by productivity gains and crop intensification rather than the expansion of farmland.
Brazil is positioned to capture a disproportionate share of this new supply. The country’s sugar exports are projected to climb toward 40 million tonnes by 2035, cementing its dominance in that market alongside its existing leads in soybeans, beef, and coffee. Continued expansion in biofuel production, which consumes both sugarcane and vegetable oils, provides an additional structural demand floor for these commodities.
For investors, the report underscores a durable macroeconomic case for Brazilian farmland, agricultural logistics, and agribusiness. A fundamental shift in the global demand map is underway, with growing populations and rising incomes across Asia, the Near East, and sub-Saharan Africa accelerating food imports. Latin America is geographically and structurally best placed to fill this gap.
The pricing environment, however, will complicate the investment thesis. The outlook expects real global commodity prices to hold at or below current levels over the next ten years. While this soft-price dynamic rewards low-cost producers like Brazil, it cuts both ways: higher export volumes will not necessarily translate into higher aggregate revenues, threatening to squeeze farm margins.
External shocks and competitive pressures add further uncertainty. The report explicitly warns that the Middle East conflict could elevate energy and fertilizer costs, crimping harvests and hitting low-income importing nations hardest. Furthermore, Brazil’s market share is not guaranteed to expand universally, with rivals like Thailand expected to gain ground in the sugar trade.
Domestically, the translation of volume into value depends heavily on infrastructure. Brazil’s ports, railways, and freight costs continue to lag behind the efficiency of its farms. Overcoming these logistics bottlenecks will dictate whether the country can fully capitalize on its projected output boom.
Finally, the yield-driven nature of this growth offers Brazilian agribusiness a defensive narrative. Because the projected output increases rely on better yields rather than land clearance, the sector can argue its expanding global footprint is compatible with protecting the Amazon and Cerrado biomes.
