SpaceX slides 28% post-IPO as Yusko flags lockup risk
SpaceX shares have lost nearly a third of their value since their IPO, prompting Morgan Creek Capital's Mark Yusko to warn that an impending lockup expiry could trigger a much steeper selloff in the $2 trillion company.
SpaceX shares have fallen sharply since their market debut, losing nearly 28% of their value over the past month and dropping more than 12% in just the last five days. The continued descent has drawn heavy criticism from Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital, who warned that an impending lockup expiry threatens to drive the stock down significantly further.
The rocket and artificial intelligence company currently holds a $2 trillion valuation, a figure Yusko described as "beyond silly" when measured against its actual power to generate earnings. He noted that to justify a 10x return on the current market capitalization, SpaceX would need to generate roughly half of the projected U.S. gross domestic product over the next decade. "It's a mathematical impossibility," Yusko said.
Structural risks emerge
Much of the near-term danger for the stock lies in its heavily restricted share structure. Only 4% of SpaceX's shares are publicly floated, with Elon Musk retaining a 46% stake and other insiders holding the remaining 50%. Yusko compared the listing strategy to Tesla's IPO, calling the electric vehicle maker's float "a practice run" for what Musk has now executed with SpaceX.
"Then he engineered a big short squeeze and the price went up 10 times," Yusko said. "He makes Tesla looks like a practice run with what he did at SpaceX." He accused Musk of using a tiny public float to artificially inflate the price before insiders exit. "He's basically stuffing this overpriced security into mom and pops retirement account so he and his VC buddies can cash out," Yusko said. "To me, that's theft."
"To me, SpaceX is the equivalent of Dogecoin," Yusko said. He argued that a small group of insiders hold the vast majority of the asset while a retail following drives the price. "If Elon sold one Doge, Doge would go to zero," he said. He applied the same "beyond silly" valuation critique to artificial intelligence firms Anthropic and OpenAI.
Investors banking on SpaceX replicating the early growth trajectories of Microsoft or Amazon are ignoring historical context, according to Yusko. Those technology leaders debuted with tiny market capitalizations, whereas SpaceX entered the public market already valued in the trillions. As the lockup period ends and insiders seek liquidity, the stock faces a severe test of that massive valuation.
