SpaceX Slides Below IPO Price With Lock-Up Expiration Looming
SpaceX shares have fallen below their offering price as investors await the company's first earnings report and a critical lock-up expiration that could pressure valuations further.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) has erased more than $1 trillion in market capitalization since its peak less than a week after its initial public offering. Shares recently changed hands at approximately $118, putting the stock below its $135 IPO price and its $161 first-day closing price. The rapid descent has turned what was originally the largest IPO in history into one of the worst-performing new listings in recent memory.
The selloff is largely a recalibration of an initial $1.8 trillion valuation that lacked immediate fundamental support. SpaceX recorded about $18 billion in revenue in 2025, indicating that IPO buyers were paying a steep premium for distant growth rather than current profitability. A Barron's analysis found that the stock has underperformed 90% of US IPOs with market capitalizations of $1 billion or more since July 2009.
Valuing the company remains difficult because it does not operate like a traditional business. Standard metrics such as price-to-earnings or price-to-sales are ineffective given the company's current financial profile. Instead, the market is attempting to price in future ventures, including the SpaceXAI data center business, Starship rocket launches, and the potential for orbital data centers.
For market participants attempting to establish a floor for the stock, the timing of any potential entry point is just as important as the price. SpaceX is set to publish its first quarterly earnings report as a public company on August 4. That release will provide the first official look at the company's post-IPO financial health.
Crucially, the August 4 report also triggers the start of a unique staged lock-up expiration, with the actual trading unlock occurring two days later on August 6. It is impossible to predict if the shares will sink to a $1 trillion valuation, which would imply a share price of roughly $76.50. However, waiting until after the August 6 unlock passes will give investors a clearer picture of where the stock's true support level lies.
