Elliott Activist Picks Show Diverging Returns Since March Filing

Paul Singer’s Elliott Investment Management has filed its latest 13F, detailing US holdings as of March 31, 2026. The disclosure reveals a portfolio spanning AI infrastructure to precious metals, with mixed immediate results for the activist fund’s top positions.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise stands out as the filing’s biggest winner, surging 90.1% since the disclosure date. The remaining major positions present a more complex picture of value realization, particularly in the commodities sector.

Triple Flag Precious Metals represents an unusual foray into gold royalties for Elliott, and it is currently sitting on an unrealized loss. The stock has dropped 21.6% since March 31 despite a stellar first quarter.

The company sold a record 30,166 gold equivalent ounces at a realized price of $4,873 per ounce, driving revenue up 78.7% year over year to $146.99 million. Net income surged 156.87% as gross margins hit 72%. Adjusted EPS of $0.45 beat estimates by three cents.

Trading at $27.29 against a modeled fair value of $35.95, the stock retains a 31.73% upside. With 73% of analysts bullish and zero bears, the market appears to be mispricing the gold cycle.

Suncor Energy offers a similar dynamic of market mispricing against operational strength. The integrated oil sands producer reported first-quarter EPS of $1.36, missing the $1.93 consensus estimate.

Traders sold the headline, but adjusted operating earnings climbed to $1.62 billion from $1.15 billion. Free cash flow surged 188.13% to $2.05 billion, prompting management to raise the monthly buyback pace from $275 million to $350 million.

The repurchase program now targets nearly $4 billion for 2026, over 30% higher than last year. Suncor screens as fairly valued at $62.02, offering just 0.25% upside, but it remains a hold that pays shareholders to wait.

The remaining disclosed positions highlight the limits of entry timing. Southwest Airlines swung from a $149 million net loss to a $227 million profit, validating the activist thesis, but a 32% share price rally shifts the stock to a hold.

Phillips 66 has already blown past its $198 analyst target, with models now projecting flat to negative one-year returns.

For market participants, the filing underscores a familiar activist playbook. Elliott is targeting fundamentally sound businesses temporarily disconnected from their intrinsic values, using severe cash flow generation to bridge the gap until the market catches up.