Strategy's Bitcoin pivot risks muddying markets, StanChart warns
Standard Chartered warns that Strategy's shift from hoarding to selling Bitcoin is confusing investors and dragging on the token's price ahead of critical earnings.
Michael Saylor signaled to markets over the weekend with a social media post reading, "Orange dots tell only part of the story." The cryptic message from Strategy’s chairman followed a major shift in the company’s treasury policy that one major bank warns is confusing investors.
Strategy has abandoned its long-standing "never sell" stance in favor of liquidating tokens to fund dividends and build cash. A July 6 SEC filing showed the firm sold $216 million of Bitcoin, leaving it with 843,775 tokens. Days earlier, the company detailed a new capital framework allowing such sales to fund an increased 12% annual dividend on its STRC preferred stock, while growing its dollar reserve to $2.55 billion.
Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, told clients on Friday that the firm's actions and messaging "are muddying the waters for BTC near-term." “The problem with the ‘never sell’ approach is that it limits what MSTR’s BTC holdings can do — or, perhaps more importantly, what they are perceived to be doing,” Kendrick said.
Shareholders are paying a heavy price for the uncertainty. STRC preferred shares, designed to hold a $100 par value, fell to their lowest level since their launch a year ago. The common MSTR shares have lost more than 70% of their value since July 2025, closing at $94.64 on Friday, well off a 52-week high of $457.22.
Kendrick believes clearer communication could stabilize both the stock and Bitcoin. “We think effective communication of MSTR’s new strategy (using BTC to back STRC) is key to reassuring markets that wholesale selling is unlikely; this should in turn support BTC prices,” he wrote. “Indeed, if this signalling proves effective, it should remove the need for MSTR to actually sell any BTC by supporting STRC’s price.”
Standard Chartered still maintains its year-end Bitcoin forecast of $100,000. Investors will get a closer look at the new financial mechanics on July 30 when Strategy reports second-quarter earnings. Analysts expect earnings of $4.28 per share, though the company has missed forecasts in six of its last eight quarters, including a 33.76% negative surprise in the first quarter of 2026.
