European grain losses hit €2bn, tightening global supplies
A record June heatwave has destroyed 9 million tonnes of European grain, costing farmers €2 billion and forcing the continent to rely more on imports as global supplies tighten.
Europe’s grain sector has lost an estimated €2 billion in revenue after a record-breaking June heatwave destroyed 9 million tonnes of crops. The damage will push the EU and the UK to their smallest combined harvest since 2018, according to trade association Coceral.
The lost volume is larger than the total forecast grain production of Austria, Ireland, and the Netherlands combined. This scale of destruction threatens to make Europe more reliant on imports, applying upward pressure on global commodity prices at a time when global supplies are already tightening.
Western Europe recorded its hottest June ever, with the timing proving particularly damaging to yields. Maize crops were hit during the crucial pollination window, while wheat suffered during the "grain fill" stage where moisture is essential for development.
France bears the heaviest losses, with 3.4 million tonnes of maize wiped out at a cost of €891 million. Hungary and Spain follow, losing 2.4 million tonnes and 1.4 million tonnes respectively. Benoît Merlo, a farmer in France’s Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, said: “With temperatures exceeding 38C for weeks on end, everything is breaking down. I’m expecting yield losses of at least 50%, or even 70%, for certain crops, such as soya.”
The UK is also facing a strained harvest, with farmers in East Anglia and south-east England bringing in crops early. “Farmers and growers across the country are working around the clock to harvest crops which have come early, keep fruit and vegetables watered, and care for their livestock,” said Paul Tompkins, deputy president of the National Farmers’ Union. “For many arable farmers, this could be another difficult and expensive harvest after extreme weather impacts in both 2024 and 2025 which saw both drought and flood.”
Regional analysts note the cumulative financial toll of adverse weather. “The dry conditions through April and much of May have clearly taken a toll on crop development, particularly for spring crops and winter cereals with limited moisture reserves,” said Helen Plant, lead analyst for cereals and oilseeds at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit estimates the €2 billion figure based on current prices, though this excludes wider costs like vegetable and livestock losses. Tom Lancaster, the ECIU’s land, food and farming analyst, said: “This will hit farmers in the pockets, reducing their income and undermining European food security at the same time. In the UK we have already seen three of the five worst harvests on record this decade, and recent heatwaves here will inevitably have cost British farmers again.”
Commodity markets are now pricing in higher import demand from Europe. However, traders will also be looking ahead to the southern hemisphere harvest in late 2026 and early 2027 to gauge the full duration of the price pressure.
The European shortfall is compounding broader global supply concerns. Severe drought across the southern and western United States is already restricting grain and meat production, creating a converging supply shock for international markets.
