VanEck flags Bitcoin supply squeeze beneath summer lull
Bitcoin's flat summer trading masks a structural supply squeeze that could support future returns, even as weak ETP demand and stressed miners pressure near-term prices.
Bitcoin has spent the past month anchored near $63,700, a quiet end to a turbulent quarter that saw prices fall 3.6% in May and 20.5% in June. According to a mid-July ChainCheck report from VanEck, this summer lull represents market consolidation rather than a recovery bottom. Spot trading volume has dropped to an average of $5.1 billion a day, roughly 29% below the post-2019 norm, while annualized realized volatility sits at 30.4%, well below the long-run average of 81%.
The derivatives market is positioned defensively, reflecting fear without outright capitulation. The one-month put/call implied volatility skew has widened to 11.4 percentage points, an 83rd-percentile reading since 2021. Traders are funding put purchases by selling calls, pushing the put/call premium ratio to 1.49 against a typical 0.71 average. Perpetual-futures funding has also halved to a 30-day average of 4.5%. VanEck warns that without a skew exceeding 15 points or negative funding—historical markers of a true bottom—forward returns over the next 30 to 180 days will likely remain below average.
Demand signals are similarly weak. U.S. spot exchange-traded products shed 40,010 bitcoin worth about $2.40 billion over the period. Corporate treasury confidence took a hit after Strategy used $1.38 billion to retire convertible notes, reducing its reserve to $900 million and prompting its first bitcoin sales since 2022.
However, the on-chain supply picture tells a markedly different story. The share of bitcoin held for longer than a year has climbed to 60.8%, up from 59.1% six months ago, with another 17.7% sitting in the six-to-twelve-month band. VanEck projects this long-term holder share will reach 62% in three months and 63% in six months. Historical regimes featuring a long-term share above 60% have consistently preceded above-average returns.
Miner economics present a stark contrast to this accumulating base. With the network hash rate near record highs around 930 EH/s, implied hashprice has plummeted to roughly $30.6 per petahash per second per day. Daily miner revenue has fallen 39.5% year over year to $28.5 million, pushing lower-efficiency rigs to breakeven. Miner equities have dropped 42% from 52-week highs, pressured by higher interest rates and a New York pause on data-center construction. Yet VanEck argues the de-rating is overdone, pointing to massive artificial-intelligence hosting contracts like TeraWulf’s $19 billion lease with Anthropic and CleanSpark’s $6.6 billion deal as signs the sector is increasingly pricing on its own merits.
For now, the market remains caught between near-term headwinds and a structurally tightening supply base. VanEck concludes that while cautious derivatives and weak miner cash flows limit immediate upside, patient holders face a fundamentally constructive setup.
