SK Hynix warns of 2027 NAND shortage ahead of Sandisk earnings

SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-Jung told Reuters that the global memory shortage will worsen in 2027. He added that demand will continue to outstrip supply beyond 2030, even as the South Korean manufacturer aggressively adds capacity.

These projections carry significant implications for NAND flash pricing and sector valuations. As the second-largest NAND supplier with an 18% market share, SK Hynix serves as a reliable indicator of industry supply dynamics. Pure-play rival Sandisk, which holds a 13% share of the NAND market according to Counterpoint Research, is positioned to capture the upside of a prolonged deficit.

Investors are positioning ahead of Sandisk’s fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings release on Aug. 5. The consensus estimate calls for revenue of $8.34 billion, representing a 338% year-over-year surge. Bottom-line growth is projected to be even more pronounced, with earnings per share forecast to jump 117 times to $34.15.

The setup for an earnings beat appears tangible. The consensus EPS estimate of $34.15 sits just above the top end of Sandisk’s own guidance range of $33.00. Management has actively shifted its commercial strategy by locking in long-term customer agreements that include variable pricing options. This contract structure allows Sandisk to immediately capture any upward revisions in NAND flash spot or contract prices. Should SK Hynix’s forecast of tightening supply prove accurate, these mechanisms could drive Sandisk's quarterly figures and forward guidance well beyond Wall Street's baseline expectations.

The magnitude of the current pricing cycle is already evident in aggregate industry data. NAND flash industry revenue multiplied 3.5 times year over year in the first quarter, reaching $46 billion. With leading executives now signaling that the supply-demand imbalance will persist for years, market participants expect the sector's pricing power to remain firmly intact through the remainder of the decade.