Nifty holds support despite Iran risk, technicals suggest upside
India's benchmark Nifty index rebounded from a geopolitical shock to post a bullish technical signal, while divergent moves in Kalyan Jewellers and Trent highlight shifting sector sentiment.
India’s Nifty index snapped a four-week winning streak after US President Donald Trump announced the end of a ceasefire with Iran, triggering a global sell-off and a spike in crude oil prices. The immediate panic proved short-lived for Indian equities. With no subsequent military escalation, the benchmark index recovered and formed a bullish Harami pattern on the daily chart.
The bounce found a floor at the 50% retracement level of the previous rally from 23,070 to 24,530. This technical support underpins a positive short-term bias, with upside targets sitting between 24,800 and 25,000. The broader bullish trajectory remains intact unless the index breaches the crucial 23,800 support level. Meanwhile, the Nifty IT index closed the week 2% higher, suggesting ongoing risk appetite in select sectors despite the geopolitical noise.
Individual stock action highlights shifting investor positioning within the broader market. Kalyan Jewellers surged roughly 25% to a fresh 52-week high, crossing above its 50-week exponential moving average for the first time in a year. This technical breakout signals a restoration of investor confidence after a weak 2025, opening a path toward the 600 level. Downside support for the jewellery stock is established at 430.
The retail sector faced severe headwinds by contrast. Trent plummeted 13% in a single week after a disappointing first-quarter update shattered investor confidence. The stock's failure to reclaim its losses over three subsequent sessions, coupled with a drop below its 50-week EMA, confirms the failure of a recent breakout. Given the weak chart structure, analysts recommend significantly reducing exposure to the stock.
Against this backdrop, LKP Securities has identified several near-term buying opportunities. ICICI Bank, showing an inverted hammer pattern and a double-bottom breakout on the hourly chart, has a target of 1,470 with a stop-loss at 1,359. Aster DM Healthcare is exhibiting a bullish RSI crossover within a rising channel, targeting 868. Finally, Minda Corporation, supported by hidden bullish divergence on the hourly chart, has an entry at 699 and a target of 745.
