IMF holds Argentina 2026 growth at 3.5% as global outlook dims
The IMF maintained its 3.5% growth forecast for Argentina in 2026, offering a rare endorsement of President Javier Milei's economic reforms as the fund trimmed its global outlook amid escalating Middle East tensions.
The International Monetary Fund stuck to its projection of 3.5% economic expansion for Argentina in 2026, followed by 4% growth the following year. The figures, published in the latest World Economic Outlook on Wednesday, show the fund holding its ground after a previous downward revision from an earlier 4.5% estimate.
For investors, the forecast signals continued IMF confidence in President Javier Milei's aggressive fiscal shock therapy. Argentina operates under a new $20 billion Extended Fund Facility agreed in 2025, which is designed to refinance part of the country's massive $44.5 billion 2018 bailout.
The fund's backing will face a key test in September, when Argentina must begin principal repayments on the 2018 package. Ahead of that deadline, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will travel to Buenos Aires at the end of July for high-level talks.
Economy Minister Luis Caputo confirmed the visit in a social media post on Wednesday. "I am pleased to announce that, later this month, we will welcome IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to Argentina. She will visit our country at the invitation of President Javier Milei," Caputo said.
The current programme aims to dismantle currency controls, rebuild Central Bank reserves and ultimately restore Argentina's access to international capital markets. Caputo said the trip will allow the government to continue "strengthening our joint work and the IMF's support for consolidating the progress achieved in terms of stability and economic growth."
Global headwinds
Argentina's positive trajectory contrasts sharply with the IMF's deteriorating global view. The fund trimmed its 2026 worldwide growth estimate to 3%, down from 3.1% in April, marking the second reduction this year.
Global inflation is now expected to accelerate to 4.7%, reversing earlier progress. "The disinflationary trend that had been taking shape since early 2024 has stalled," said Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF's research department.
The global downgrade was finalized prior to the latest military exchanges between the United States and Iran. "Developments overnight illustrate the uncertainty and risks that surround the outlook," Brooks said, following the US president's declaration that a ceasefire was over.
Despite the immediate geopolitical shocks, the IMF still anticipates "a V-shaped recovery: weaker growth this year compared with our pre-war forecasts, followed by a rebound next year,” Brooks noted. She pointed to "two powerful forces pulling in opposite directions: the lingering effects of the energy crisis stemming from the war in the Middle East, and an investment boom driven by technological advances."
