Nigeria's fastest-growing sectors employ just 2.7% of workers
A new report from CardinalStone shows Nigeria's economic growth remains concentrated in capital-light sectors that employ a fraction of the workforce, limiting consumer spending potential despite a 4.2% growth forecast for 2026.
Nigeria's six fastest-growing sectors averaged above 5% annual growth over the past three years but absorbed only 2.7% of the country's workforce, according to CardinalStone's 2026 Mid-Year Economic Outlook. The investment firm's analysis highlights a severe structural imbalance in Africa's largest economy.
Administrative and support services led the expansion at 16.1% annually but accounted for just 0.9% of total employment. Arts, entertainment and recreation followed at 8.6% with a 0.4% employment share. Financial services, mining, real estate and ICT posted growth between 5.1% and 6.6%, yet each contributed to just 0.2% to 0.6% of total jobs.
The bulk of Nigerian workers remain trapped in slow-growing industries. Agriculture alone accounts for 30.1% of employment, wholesale and retail trade makes up 27.5%, and manufacturing represents 12.7%. Together, these three sectors employ 70.3% of the labor force, yet each recorded average growth rates below 2% over the same period.
This structural mismatch helps explain why macroeconomic improvements have not translated into broad-based household income gains. “This position explains the poor transmission of economic gains to the bottom of the pyramid with the country’s lack of inclusive growth,” the report said.
For market participants, the dynamic underscores a persistent constraint on domestic consumer demand. Capital continues to flow disproportionately to low labor-intensive sectors such as oil and gas and specialized services. “Low labour-intensive sectors such as oil & gas and services have been the primary drivers of the recent macro gains and, hence, get a proportionate share of the associated income,” the report added.
Weak labor productivity further limits the potential for inclusive economic expansion. “The issue with growth inclusiveness is not new, as the country has witnessed a pattern in which sustained economic growth failed to commensurately boost the number of jobs over the last decade, a phenomenon known as the jobless growth paradox,” the report said.
Despite these structural headwinds, CardinalStone maintained its forecast that Nigeria's economy will grow by 4.2% in 2026.
The broader employment challenge remains particularly acute for women, with World Bank data showing only 10.5% of employed Nigerian women in wage or salaried roles as of 2025. Although 80.7% of women aged 15 and over are economically active, the vast majority remain concentrated in informal, vulnerable jobs that offer limited income security and no social protection.
