Argentine University Sees Recession Risk

A university model says Argentina’s economy shrank 2.66% in the third quarter. The official figure arrives on 16 December.

A university near Buenos Aires flags an Argentina recession risk, estimating that output fell 2.66% from July to September. Two straight quarterly falls make a technical recession, and the official third-quarter figure is due on Wednesday, 16 December.

The estimate comes from the Universidad de San Andrés and is a model, not official data. For US investors it tests the growth story behind Argentina’s dollar bonds and New York-listed shares.

The Universidad de San Andrés publishes a weekly estimate of Argentina’s output, called a nowcast. Each Friday its model blends 29 indicators, such as cement shipments, jobs and imports, into one reading of the current quarter.

The report of Friday, 23 October puts July-to-September output 2.66% below the April-to-June quarter, after seasonal adjustment. The model’s likely range is a fall of 2.52% to 2.80%, which the university says is not a formal confidence interval.

A week earlier the same model showed a fall of 2.07%. The estimate moved down 0.58 points in the week INDEC published its weak August activity figure.

The central bank’s September survey of forecasters, known as the REM, expects a smaller fall of 0.95%. The university’s own report puts its estimate 1.71 points below that survey.

INDEC, the national statistics institute, said on Thursday, 17 September that output fell 0.6% in the second quarter. That was the first quarterly fall after four straight rises.

INDEC’s monthly activity index, known as the EMAE, fell 2.8% in July and rose only 0.1% in August. Against August 2025, activity was down 1.7%.

Over January to August, activity is still 1.2% above a year earlier. INDEC’s smoothed trend line was flat in August, which Economy Minister Luis Caputo noted when he posted the data.

A calculation from INDEC’s seasonally adjusted figures shows how deep the hole is. If September only repeats August, the third quarter averages about 2.8% below the second.

To avoid any quarterly fall, September activity would have to jump about 8.6% in one month. The biggest monthly rise in INDEC’s series since January 2023 is 2.7%.

President Javier Milei, a libertarian in office since December 2023, faces a presidential election in 2027. Economy Minister Luis Caputo posted the August figures on Wednesday, 21 October, and noted that the trend line was unchanged.

No official response to the university estimate was public when this was written. Official September data arrive on Tuesday, 24 November, and the third-quarter figure on Wednesday, 16 December.

Argentina’s credit rating is below investment grade, so holders of its dollar bonds watch growth and tax income closely. Weaker activity usually cuts tax revenue, which matters for a government that has made a balanced budget its main goal.

New York-listed Argentine shares also trade on the growth story. For background, read the central bank forecaster survey and Caputo’s answer on recession .

Wider context is in Argentina and the United States explained and on the Argentina hub . The key players of the Argentine economy are profiled separately.

No official third-quarter figure exists yet, and September activity data are still to come. The university number is a model estimate that can move sharply.

Whether the government expects a second straight fall is not public. The university does not itself use the word recession in its weekly report.

The university publishes its next estimate on Friday, 30 October, and every Friday after that. INDEC then releases September activity on Tuesday, 24 November.

The first official third-quarter figure follows on Wednesday, 16 December. That number will show whether Argentina is in a technical recession.

A university model estimates that output fell 2.66% in July to September from the previous quarter. It is an estimate, not official data.

Not yet. INDEC reported a 0.6% fall for April to June, and the third-quarter figure is due on Wednesday, 16 December.

The Centre for Quantitative Business Studies at the Universidad de San Andrés, near Buenos Aires. It updates the figure every Friday.

The university calls its range a margin of the calculation, not a calibrated confidence interval. The central bank’s forecaster survey expects a smaller fall of 0.95%.

It tests the growth case behind Argentina’s dollar bonds and New York-listed shares. Weaker activity can also reduce tax income.

Sources: Universidad de San Andrés, Nowcast del PBI ; UdeSA weekly report, 23 October 2026 ; INDEC, EMAE August 2026 (21 October) ; INDEC, GDP advance report second quarter 2026 (17 September) ; INDEC, release calendar second half 2026 ; Central Bank of Argentina, REM market expectations survey (all accessed 27 October 2026).

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind , Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error