Federal Watchdog Investigates Adam Kinzinger for Kalshi Bets on His Pardon
The inquiry by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission centers on bets the former congressman made on Kalshi in the weeks before he was pardoned in January 2025.
A federal financial watchdog is investigating former Representative Adam Kinzinger for bets in a prediction market on whether President Joseph R. Biden Jr. would pardon him before leaving office.
Mr. Kinzinger, a Republican critic of President Trump’s, was a member of the House select committee that investigated the January 2021 attack on the Capitol. He was pardoned by Mr. Biden on Jan. 20, 2025, after Mr. Trump, who had been re-elected, declared that members of the select committee “should go to jail.”
The investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission centers on bets Mr. Kinzinger made on Kalshi, a leading prediction market, in the weeks before he was pardoned, according to two people familiar with the confidential inquiry who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Mr. Kinzinger netted roughly $800 on his trades, one person said. The inquiry was reported earlier by Politico .
Mr. Kinzinger could not be reached for comment. He told Politico that he had no inside information about whether he would be pardoned and believed that he was following the rules. He retired from Congress in 2023 after serving six terms as a representative from Illinois.
The C.F.T.C. has been eager to show it is pursuing insider traders who seek to profit from prediction markets. As of August, the trading commission had as many as 20 ongoing investigations, just based on referrals from Kalshi, one of a dozen prediction markets in an exploding field. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, has a financial stake in Kalshi and Polymarket, another leading prediction market.
The trading commission has fined two traders on prediction markets: George Santos, a former Republican congressman, and a former operator of the White House teleprompter. Two other individuals face civil and criminal charges.
A number of organizations have argued that the C.F.T.C. should rule out bets when only a small number of individuals are privy to knowledge about the possible outcome of an event, such as whether someone will receive a presidential pardon.
But rather than exclude categories of bets, the federal agency has left it to the prediction markets to decide when the opportunity for insider trading is too great to invite bets on what will happen.
Sharon LaFraniere is an investigative reporter focusing on the Trump administration.
